Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for NORA-21 in Mexico from 25 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC to 28 Aug 2021 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21

in Mexico

28 Aug 2021 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (01 Sep 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 01 Sep 2021 00:00 - 02 Sep 2021 00:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	130 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	139 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

130 km/h Current Max.

Up to 160000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 21:00	139	620 thousand	No people	Mexico
2	26 Aug 2021 03:00	130	900 thousand	No people	Mexico
3	26 Aug 2021 09:00	130	1.9 million	No people	Mexico
4	26 Aug 2021 15:00	139	3.9 million	No people	Mexico
5	26 Aug 2021 21:00	139	4 million	640 thousand	Mexico
6	27 Aug 2021 03:00	139	2.9 million	510 thousand	Mexico
7	27 Aug 2021 09:00	148	3.1 million	260 thousand	Mexico
8	27 Aug 2021 15:00	139	7.6 million	8 thousand	Mexico
9	27 Aug 2021 21:00	148	4.7 million	40 thousand	Mexico
10	28 Aug 2021 03:00	130	9.2 million	160 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	11.7, -99.4
2	26 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	11.9, -100.1
3	26 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12, -100.6
4	26 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.5, -100.8
5	26 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.4, -101.7
6	27 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.1, -102.6
7	27 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.6, -103.5
8	27 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	610000 people	15.4, -104.3
9	27 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	1.2 million people	15.5, -104.9
10	28 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	2.2 million people	16.3, -105.1
10	28 Aug 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	1.7 million people	17.6, -105.6
10	29 Aug 2021 00:00	Category 1	120	4600 people	2.2 million people	19.6, -106.2
10	29 Aug 2021 12:00	Category 1	130	1000 people	1.5 million people	21.6, -107
10	30 Aug 2021 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	2.2 million people	22.7, -107.9
10	30 Aug 2021 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	2.7 million people	23.6, -108.6
10	31 Aug 2021 00:00	Category 1	148	<1000 people	2.8 million people	24.5, -109.3
10	01 Sep 2021 00:00	Category 1	130	160000 people	1.9 million people	26.5, -111
10	02 Sep 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	29.5, -111.5	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Nayarit	Mexico
Baja California Sur	Mexico
Sonora	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Guaymas	Sonora	Mexico	City	100000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Isla Maria Madre		5				0
General Jose Maria Yanez International	GYM	27	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7700

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Bahia Salinas		Mexico
Guaymas	MXGYM	Mexico

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Comaquito	Babasac	1977

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in San Jose, Mexico. This height is estimated for 01 Sep 2021 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (59 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 28 Aug 2021 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	01 Sep 2021 03:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.3
	01 Sep 2021 00:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2021 22:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2021 14:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2021 03:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2021 00:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2021 22:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 17:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2021 00:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2021 03:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 11:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2021 08:00	Huajapan	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2021 03:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 05:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 19:00	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2021 08:00	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 21:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 21:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 21:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 21:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 07:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 22:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 21:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 21:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 09:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 21:00	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 22:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2021 03:00	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 13:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 04:00	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 14:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 03:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 20:00	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 20:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2021 02:00	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2021 01:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2021 09:00	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 18:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2021 03:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:00	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 04:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 23:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 23:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 01:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 04:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 20:00	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 11:00	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 15:00	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 15:00	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2021 02:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2021 03:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 21:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 07:00	Marmol	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.