Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 158 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.7 m (14 Mar 18:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 158 km/h 1.7 m 878 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 176 km/h 3.1 m 1256 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique, Zimbabwe1005464
+
Mozambique998576 
Zimbabwe6888 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 08 Mar 2019 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Mar 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 11 Mar 2019 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 12 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 12 Mar 2019 12:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 13 Mar 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 13 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 14 Mar 2019 00:00 158 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

1256 mm

Up to 5.9 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe1514
+
Zimbabwe916 
Mozambique598 
500-750 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe35243
+
Zimbabwe25240 
Mozambique10003 
250-500 mmZimbabwe, Mozambique551566
+
Zimbabwe313811 
Mozambique237755 
100-250 mmZimbabwe, Mozambique5340419
+
Zimbabwe2854777 
Mozambique2485642 
50-100 mmTanzania, Zimbabwe, Mozambique6158564
+
Tanzania1 
Zimbabwe5475309 
Mozambique683254 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 08 Mar 2019 12:00 721 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 00:00 678 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 12:00 764 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 919 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 12:00 918 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Mar 2019 00:00 725 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 11 Mar 2019 12:00 556 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 12 Mar 2019 00:00 585 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 12 Mar 2019 12:00 522 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 13 Mar 2019 00:00 548 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 13 Mar 2019 12:00 731 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 14 Mar 2019 00:00 878 5.9 million
- Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.7m in Nhangau, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 14 Mar 2019 18:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Mar 2019 18:15 Nhangau Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 18:15 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 18:15 Panaca Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Damiao Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 17:00 Tama Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 16:30 Jonja Mozambique  1.6
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  1.4
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Bingue Mozambique  1.3
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Divinhe Mozambique  1.0
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Chiloane Mozambique  1.0
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Rupia Mozambique  0.9
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Machesse Mozambique  0.9
14 Mar 2019 10:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Jo Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Laisse Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 03:30 Amado Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 01:15 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 01:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Natalia Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 01:30 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 01:30 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 01:30 Barra Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:15 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:15 Afonso Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:15 Catine Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:15 Caulino Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:15 Mariano Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 12:15 Asneira Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:30 Colchester South Africa  0.2
14 Mar 2019 21:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
14 Mar 2019 21:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 02:15 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 01:45 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 02:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:30 Nantapa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:30 Muaco Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:30 Quinga Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 00:30 Metula Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 01:30 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 02:15 Momade Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 02:15 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 01:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 01:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 01:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 11:15 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 11:15 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 11:15 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 00:45 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 00:45 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 00:45 Afo Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 03:30 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 02:15 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Chichocane Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:00 China Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Mahoa Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Memba Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Muanua Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Ecota Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Formone Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Capelelene Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Nangata Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:00 Chepa Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 03:00 Ali Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 03:00 Injaca Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 03:00 Terrene Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 03:00 Calajulo Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 03:00 Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 05:15 Metuge Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 05:15 Mussange Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 05:15 Acache Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 05:15 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 05:15 Messequero Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 05:15 Atolo Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 05:15 Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 05:15 Luguni Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 05:15 Tari Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:45 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 06:45 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 02:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 02:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 11:00 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 03:45 Lumbo Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 03:45 Mocambique Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 08:15 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 08:15 Uetela Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 09:45 Beula Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 09:45 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 09:45 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 09:45 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 09:45 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mombasa Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mto Panga Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mtwapa Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Kijipwa Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Kijangwani Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 01:45 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 09:45 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 09:45 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 10:45 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 10:45 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 10:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 10:45 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 20:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 01:30 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 01:30 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 00:00 Enkovukeni South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 02:15 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 02:15 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 10:45 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Ndumbwe Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Kiswa Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Mikindani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Naumba Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Mtwara Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Msangamkuu Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Bopwe Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Konde Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Chokaningayo Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Kiuyu Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:45 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Richmond South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 02:30 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 02:30 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 02:30 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 02:30 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mkunguni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Ukongoroni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Paje Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Kipandoni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Hiari Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Tongoni Tanzania  0.1
16 Mar 2019 13:00 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Magesani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Rushungi Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Lihimalyao Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mkoe Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 17:45 Kuwea Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 16:15 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 16:15 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 16:15 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:30 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Ukunda Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Tiwi Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Waa Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mkunguni Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mwandoni Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Mkwiro Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 01:45 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 01:45 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 01:45 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Chake Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Ziwani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Kijichame Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Jojo Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Dutani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Hurumuzi Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Vumba Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 01:45 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 01:45 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 01:45 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:15 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:15 Mkarangama Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:15 Kipingwe Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:15 Kirongwe Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Uzi Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Kijini Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Fumba Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Ramisi Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Kisima Chande Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Gazi Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mapopwe Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Mdudu Mdogo Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Dikoni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Chwaka Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Kitogani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Pingwe Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 02:15 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 09:30 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 02:30 Siane Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 02:15 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:30 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 01:15 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 01:15 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 01:15 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 04:30 Napito Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 03:30 Miquindane Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 03:30 Lurio Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 03:30 Ombauine Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Kitambula Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Petukiza Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Bomalandani Tanzania  0.1

Calculation folder at this link