Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RAYMOND-19
in Mexico
16 Nov 2019 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RAYMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 112 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (16 Nov 08:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 112 km/h 0.2 m 312 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 115 km/h 0.4 m 573 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

115 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico130 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 15 Nov 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 15 Nov 2019 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 15 Nov 2019 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 15 Nov 2019 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 16 Nov 2019 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 16 Nov 2019 06:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico30,886 
100-250 mmMexico132,026 
50-100 mmMexico77,401 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 15 Nov 2019 00:00 243 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 15 Nov 2019 06:00 206 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 15 Nov 2019 12:00 267 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 15 Nov 2019 18:00 252 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 16 Nov 2019 00:00 226 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 16 Nov 2019 06:00 482 160 thousand
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Boca del Rio, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16 Nov 2019 08:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
16 Nov 2019 08:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 08:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 07:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 08:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 08:15 Loreto Mexico  0.2
16 Nov 2019 08:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 12:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 12:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 12:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 07:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 11:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 07:45 Ligui Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 07:45 Tripui Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 07:45 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 09:00 Conejo Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 06:00 Chamela Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:45 Datilito Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:45 La Paz Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 07:15 Rosario Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:30 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 11:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 11:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 11:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 11:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:30 San Jose Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 11:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 11:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:15 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 11:45 Alvarado Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 11:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 11:00 Florida Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 11:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 10:15 Quinones Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 10:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 10:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 11:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 06:45 Ursulo Galvan Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:15 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 08:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 11:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 11:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 11:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1