Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PAWAN-19 in Somalia, Ethiopia from 03 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC to 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19

in Somalia, Ethiopia

06 Dec 2019 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (06 Dec 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	61 km/h	0.2 m	292 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	79 km/h	0.3 m	778 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	02 Dec 2019 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Dec 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	04 Dec 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	04 Dec 2019 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	05 Dec 2019 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	05 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Dec 2019 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Somalia	9,066
100-250 mm	Oman, Somalia, Ethiopia	178,093	+
	Oman	08
	Somalia	160,807
	Ethiopia	17,278
50-100 mm	Oman, Somalia, Ethiopia	451,013	+
	Oman	223
	Somalia	262,269
	Ethiopia	188,521

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	02 Dec 2019 12:00	476	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Dec 2019 00:00	508	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	04 Dec 2019 00:00	204	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	04 Dec 2019 12:00	262	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	05 Dec 2019 00:00	427	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	05 Dec 2019 12:00	172	-		-	-	-	-	-	Somalia
8	06 Dec 2019 00:00	213	Few people			-	-	-	-	Somalia
9	06 Dec 2019 12:00	382	190 thousand				-	-	-	Oman, Somalia, Ethiopia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Darimoh, Somalia. This height is estimated for 06 Dec 2019 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Darimoh	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:30	'Ag	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:30	Cal Marthal	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Aiesloho	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Mach	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Baarbacadle	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Eyl	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Daga Laha Uein	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 16:00	Eddi Gellei	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Denouda Digdiglei	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:30	Bola Cohuan	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Ascira	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 21:15	Hen Daier	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Bargaal	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Culli	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Gaalacoodday	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 14:45	Deh-Cabo	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:45	Cadayo	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 20:30	Dauli	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 07:00	Ceel Dhahanaan	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Midi	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Al Kharamilah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 16:00	Bandarbeyla	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Al Madasikah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:15	Ceelbacduur	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 20:30	Hobyo	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 20:30	Garahadde	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Harag Jid	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:15	Hurdiyo	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 04:30	Boosaaso	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 04:30	Marero	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 04:30	Bacaad	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 16:30	Sala Gon	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Sair	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Khatib	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Haima	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Fugwa	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Bu Tawq	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Sajid	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:45	Xaafuun	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Humr	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Farasan	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Kamaran	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Sayfaf	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Al Jazirah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Qurayyah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Al Khawbah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Ibn Abbas	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:30	Bereeda	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:30	Tooxin	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:00	Al Madaya	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Lakba	Oman	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Sawqirah	Oman	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Lakabi	Oman	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Qaysad	Oman	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 13:30	Rehayto	Eritrea	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:15	Jizan	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:15	Al Karbus	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 17:15	Saylac	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Al Qahmah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Musaykah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Al Luyhayyah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 17:45	Tadjoura	Djibouti	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 18:45	Aantaara	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 19:15	Boho	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 19:15	Wareegsimo	Somalia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.