Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

11 Feb 2020 18 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	50 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (11 Feb 21:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	50 km/h	0.3 m	65 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	11 Feb 2020 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	11 Feb 2020 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	11 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar	572,987	+
	Tanzania	33,864
	Mozambique	25,271
	Madagascar	513,852

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	40	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	11 Feb 2020 06:00	41	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	11 Feb 2020 12:00	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	11 Feb 2020 18:00	232	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Bevatry, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 11 Feb 2020 21:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:45	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:45	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:45	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:45	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:45	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:45	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:45	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 19:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:15	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 19:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 19:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 19:45	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 19:45	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 19:45	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 19:45	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 19:45	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 19:45	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 19:45	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Soalala	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:30	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:30	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:30	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:15	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:15	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:15	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:15	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:15	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:30	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:15	Quinga	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:15	Metula	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Moraharivo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:15	Momade	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:15	Metopa	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:45	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:30	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:30	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:00	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:00	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:00	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 19:45	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 19:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 19:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 19:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:15	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:15	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:15	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 18:15	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 19:30	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Dzamandzar	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 23:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 23:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 23:15	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 23:15	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 23:15	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:30	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:30	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Miquindane	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Lurio	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Ombauine	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Ambalihabe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 23:00	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 23:00	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 23:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 20:30	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:00	Anompaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 19:30	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 19:30	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:45	Palma	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:45	Quionga	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:45	Boala	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:45	Maganja	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:45	Quiwia	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:00	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Ankomany	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Marosakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Mariarano	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Berafia	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Ampasimena	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:00	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:00	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:00	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:30	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 22:15	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:15	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Ouallah	Comoros	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Fomboni	Comoros	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Bandani	Comoros	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 21:45	Iconi	Comoros	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.