Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AMPHAN-20
in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan
17 May 2020 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AMPHAN-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries India
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (17 May 11:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 115 km/h 0.2 m 172 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 263 km/h 2.4 m 749 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

263 km/h

Up to 1.1 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndia1,149,671 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 May 2020 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 16 May 2020 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 16 May 2020 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 17 May 2020 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 17 May 2020 06:00 216 -
- - - - - India
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndia, Burma625,632
+
Burma466,637 
India158,995 
50-100 mmBurma, Bangladesh, India8,682,134
+
Burma6,433,253 
Bangladesh86,431 
India2,162,450 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 May 2020 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 16 May 2020 12:00 99 -
- - - - - India
Blue 3 16 May 2020 18:00 168 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 17 May 2020 00:00 207 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 17 May 2020 06:00 619 630 thousand
- - - - Burma, Bangladesh, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Kakinada, India. This height is estimated for 17 May 2020 11:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17 May 2020 11:30 Kakinada India  0.2
17 May 2020 06:15 Karuvaddukkeni Sri Lanka  0.2
17 May 2020 06:15 Pulmoddai Sri Lanka  0.2
17 May 2020 06:15 Analkaddimady Sri Lanka  0.2
17 May 2020 11:00 Gangra India  0.1
17 May 2020 09:15 Kakdwip India  0.1
17 May 2020 09:15 Namkhana India  0.1
17 May 2020 09:15 Belpukur India  0.1
17 May 2020 12:00 Hngetkyidaung Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 12:00 Thegondan Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 12:00 Thaunggon Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 12:00 Mibya Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 12:00 Kala-ywa Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 10:00 Therunattam India  0.1
17 May 2020 10:15 Vishakhapatnam India  0.1
17 May 2020 10:15 Chittivalasa India  0.1
17 May 2020 10:15 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
17 May 2020 10:15 Konada India  0.1
17 May 2020 09:15 Dublat India  0.1
17 May 2020 07:30 Purnankuppam India  0.1
17 May 2020 07:30 Pondicherry India  0.1
17 May 2020 07:30 Kalapettai India  0.1
17 May 2020 11:45 Kattumavadi India  0.1
17 May 2020 11:45 Manamelkudi India  0.1
17 May 2020 11:45 Atirampattinam India  0.1
17 May 2020 10:30 Peddapatnam India  0.1
17 May 2020 10:45 Durgarajupatnam India  0.1
17 May 2020 07:15 Kuvattur India  0.1
17 May 2020 07:15 Mahabalipuram India  0.1
17 May 2020 11:30 Bandamurlanka India  0.1
17 May 2020 08:45 Nizampatam India  0.1
17 May 2020 08:45 Kottapalem India  0.1
17 May 2020 08:45 Lankavanidibba India  0.1
17 May 2020 07:30 Rasalpur India  0.1
17 May 2020 07:30 Chandipur India  0.1
17 May 2020 11:45 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 10:30 Chakicherla India  0.1
17 May 2020 10:30 Vatturupallepalem India  0.1
17 May 2020 09:30 Kelambakkam India  0.1
17 May 2020 09:30 Aliavalai Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 09:30 Chundikkulam Sri Lanka  0.1