Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
17 Jan 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (17 Jan 21:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 68 km/h 0.2 m 127 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 158 km/h 3.2 m 1024 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

158 km/h

Up to 200 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar195,647 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 137 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMadagascar1,375 
250-500 mmMadagascar385,588 
100-250 mmMadagascar2,132,825 
50-100 mmMadagascar1,680,077 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 38 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 665 2.5 million
- - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 17 Jan 2021 21:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:30 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
17 Jan 2021 21:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:15 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:15 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:15 Chiloane Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:00 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:00 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:00 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:45 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:45 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:00 Behavoa Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:45 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:45 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:45 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:45 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:45 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:45 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:15 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Ampara Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Manica Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:45 Onara Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:45 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:45 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:30 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:30 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:30 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:15 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:15 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:15 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:15 China Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:15 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:45 Beula Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:45 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:45 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 21:45 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:15 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:15 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:00 Beira Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:15 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Marovoha Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:45 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:30 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:30 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:30 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:30 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:30 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:45 Antunes Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 20:45 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:00 Jo Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 23:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
17 Jan 2021 22:00 Ambalanosy Madagascar  0.1
17 Jan 2021 19:15 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1