Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
26 Aug 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 2 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 101 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (28 Aug 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 101 km/h 0.3 m 318 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 0.7 m 1646 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

137 km/h

Up to 1.5 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico1,682 
Tropical StormMexico1,485,907 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 151 2 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMexico580 
250-500 mmMexico635,467 
100-250 mmMexico2,262,717 
50-100 mmMexico3,577,660 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 289 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 488 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 413 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 589 2.9 million
- - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Cayaca, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
28 Aug 2021 12:00 Cayaca Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 12:00 San Telmo Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 12:00 Bucerias Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 12:15 Apisa Mexico  0.2
26 Aug 2021 22:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
26 Aug 2021 19:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 17:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 13:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 12:15 Chupadero Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 12:00 Maruata Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 05:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 05:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
26 Aug 2021 22:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
26 Aug 2021 22:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 12:15 El Real Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 04:15 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
26 Aug 2021 20:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
26 Aug 2021 22:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 04:15 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 03:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 04:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 01:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
26 Aug 2021 22:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
26 Aug 2021 21:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
26 Aug 2021 21:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 17:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 01:30 La Choya Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 01:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:30 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 20:45 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:15 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 09:00 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 20:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:15 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 03:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 08:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 09:00 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 23:15 San Blas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 13:45 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 13:45 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 06:30 La Florida Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 21:30 El Tule Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 21:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 19:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 02:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 10:45 Novillero Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 18:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:15 Santiago Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:15 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 05:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 04:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Cedros Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 01:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 23:45 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 05:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:45 Chula Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 02:15 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:45 La Playa Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 03:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 01:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 02:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 02:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:30 La Lima Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:45 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 14:00 Coronado United States  0.1
27 Aug 2021 14:00 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
27 Aug 2021 03:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 08:30 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:45 Liliba Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 07:15 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 10:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:45 Chola Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 01:15 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 01:15 Molino Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 02:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 05:45 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 14:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:45 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 18:00 Marquelia Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 04:15 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:45 Mulege Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:15 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 14:30 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 13:45 Rancho Boca de San Jose Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:30 San Jose Mexico  0.1