Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
12 Oct 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (13 Oct 13:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 79 km/h 0.5 m 160 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 76 km/h 0.4 m 386 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

76 km/h

Up to 390 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico394,588
+
United States240 
Mexico394,347 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Oct 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 12 Oct 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 7 12 Oct 2021 12:00 133 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico2,039,973
+
United States1,411,130 
Mexico628,842 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico11,676,283
+
United States10,891,778 
Mexico784,505 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Oct 2021 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 00:00 215 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 12:00 210 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 272 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 12:00 319 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 12 Oct 2021 00:00 105 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 12 Oct 2021 12:00 230 2 million
- - - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Perihuete, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 13:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.5
13 Oct 2021 13:45 Dimas Mexico  0.5
14 Oct 2021 04:00 La Gloria Mexico  0.4
14 Oct 2021 04:00 Chaparral Mexico  0.4
14 Oct 2021 16:00 Matagorda United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 16:00 Chinquapin United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 13:30 La Boca Mexico  0.3
14 Oct 2021 03:15 Corpus Christi United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 03:15 North Beach United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 03:15 Gardendale United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 03:15 Doyle United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 03:15 Orange Grove United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 03:15 Portland United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 03:15 Gregory United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 03:15 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 10:00 Estes United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 10:00 Rockport United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 10:00 Shell Ridge United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 10:00 Copano Village United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 10:00 Fulton United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 10:00 Holiday Beach United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 10:00 Lamar United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Marmol Mexico  0.3
14 Oct 2021 05:30 Spanish Village United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:30 Austwell United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:30 Seadrift United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Florida Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:15 Carancahua United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:15 El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:15 Camp Hulen United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:15 Palacios United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:15 Collegeport United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:15 Simpsonville United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:15 Citrus Grove United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 03:00 Ingleside United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 03:00 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 03:00 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 03:00 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 03:00 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 03:00 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 03:00 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:15 Riviera United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:15 Vattman United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:15 Loyola Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:15 Orange Grove United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:15 La Parra Landing United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:45 Indianola United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:45 Olivia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:45 Weedhaven United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:45 Port Alto United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:45 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 02:00 Maudlowe United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 02:00 Tivoli United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 02:00 Long Mott United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Novillero Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 02:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:45 Peary Place United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:45 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Barron Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Altata Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 17:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 17:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 20:30 La Choya Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:30 Yarborough United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 20:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 02:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 02:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:15 Mustang Beach United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:15 Port Aransas United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 16:45 Magnolia Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 08:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 08:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 08:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:45 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:45 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:45 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 11:45 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:15 City Arroyo United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:15 Port Mansfield United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:15 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:15 Buena Vista United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Loreto Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:15 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:15 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:30 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 12:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 12:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 San Jose Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 13:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Liliba Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 05:45 Molino Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 19:30 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1