Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
21 Jan 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Exposed population 20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 101 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.1 m (23 Jan 06:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 101 km/h 2.1 m 383 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 158 km/h 3.2 m 1024 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

158 km/h

Up to 970 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 3Mozambique157 
CAT. 2Mozambique248 
CAT. 1Mozambique19,064 
Tropical StormMadagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe970,249
+
Madagascar4,649 
Mozambique938,248 
Zimbabwe27,352 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 79 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 202 20 thousand
- - Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMozambique22 
250-500 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe538,549
+
Mozambique422,480 
Zimbabwe116,069 
100-250 mmMozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe3,667,728
+
Mozambique3,222,911 
Madagascar44,561 
Zimbabwe400,256 
50-100 mmMozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa3,047,919
+
Mozambique1,856,547 
Madagascar145,870 
Zimbabwe1,008,476 
South Africa37,026 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 38 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 129 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 181 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 346 60 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 483 9 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 204 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 329 580 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 508 290 thousand
- - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 503 120 thousand
- - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 282 100 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 612 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 520 4.2 million
- - Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

2.1 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC