Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
22 Jan 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (22 Jan 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 137 km/h 1.2 m 179 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 158 km/h 3.2 m 1024 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa1,050,234
+
Mozambique1,036,500 
Zimbabwe2,757 
South Africa10,977 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 79 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 140 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 126 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 137 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

1024 mm

Up to 5.8 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa11,359
+
Mozambique108 
Zimbabwe1,489 
South Africa9,762 
250-500 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa1,017,440
+
Mozambique335,098 
Zimbabwe144,955 
South Africa537,387 
100-250 mmMalawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa4,777,160
+
Malawi9,034 
Mozambique1,960,764 
Zimbabwe1,056,994 
South Africa1,750,368 
50-100 mmMalawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Swaziland3,290,851
+
Malawi110,744 
Mozambique1,663,298 
Zimbabwe951,069 
South Africa529,648 
Swaziland36,092 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 38 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 129 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 181 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 346 60 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 483 9 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 204 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 329 580 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 508 290 thousand
- - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 503 120 thousand
- - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 282 100 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 612 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 383 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 390 7 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 185 30 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 221 20 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 286 170 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 186 110 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 667 5.8 million
- - Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Swaziland




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.2 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC