Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
18 Jan 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (19 Jan 17:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 72 km/h 0.4 m 129 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 158 km/h 3.2 m 1024 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

158 km/h

Up to 80 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar79,060 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 122 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMadagascar86 
250-500 mmMadagascar621,119 
100-250 mmMadagascar1,988,334 
50-100 mmMadagascar1,329,434 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 38 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 600 2.6 million
- - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 19 Jan 2021 17:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Voloina Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Manambia Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Rantabe Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:15 Benjana Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 10:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 09:45 Anoromby Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 09:45 Fananehana Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 09:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 09:45 Antalavia Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 09:45 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 09:30 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 09:30 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 09:30 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 09:30 Tampolo Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 09:45 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 09:45 Mananara Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 09:45 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 09:30 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 09:45 Seranambe Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 02:15 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 02:15 Manakalana Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 02:15 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 02:15 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 09:45 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 22:45 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 09:45 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 09:45 Antanambe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 05:30 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 05:30 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 05:30 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:30 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 19:15 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 19:15 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 19:15 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:15 Maniroka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 09:30 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 09:30 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 22:45 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Marovoha Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Ampitily Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Singalana Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 07:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 07:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 08:30 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 08:30 Fenerive Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 05:45 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 20:45 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 23:30 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 08:30 Farafangana Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 08:30 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Androlavy Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 16:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 16:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 20:45 Onara Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Anompaka Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Mahitsihazo Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.2
18 Jan 2021 08:45 Antunes Mozambique  0.2
18 Jan 2021 08:45 Chamba Mozambique  0.2
18 Jan 2021 08:45 Beira Mozambique  0.2
18 Jan 2021 08:45 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2021 01:45 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 18:45 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 03:30 Tataho Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 03:30 Manakara Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 03:30 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:00 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 04:30 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 04:30 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 04:30 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 16:30 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 10:15 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 10:15 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 01:15 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:45 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:45 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 07:15 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 07:15 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 07:15 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 07:15 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 08:45 Manica Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 08:30 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 07:45 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 07:45 Chiloane Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 05:15 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 05:15 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 04:15 Amado Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 09:15 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 09:15 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 09:15 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 09:15 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 09:15 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 04:15 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 04:15 Esama Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 04:15 Ankaramanihy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 04:15 Manantenina Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 16:30 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:45 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 19:15 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 00:45 Tolanaro Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 00:45 Marokoky Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 00:45 Sainte-Luce Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 01:15 Talaky Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 01:15 Iambaro Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 01:15 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 01:15 Ambazoa Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 01:15 Ankazomanitsy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 16:30 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 05:45 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:45 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:45 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 04:30 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 04:30 Barra Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 23:15 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 23:15 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 23:15 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 23:15 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 23:15 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 23:15 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 23:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 07:15 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Beula Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Maxixe Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Chicoque Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Inhambane Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Guilande Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Banga Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 21:15 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 00:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 01:00 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 01:00 Ampara Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 01:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 01:45 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:30 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:45 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:45 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:45 Mandrorohabe Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:45 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:45 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:45 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 20:45 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 01:00 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 14:15 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 14:15 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 14:15 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 14:15 Metula Mozambique  0.1
18 Jan 2021 15:15 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 15:15 Taratasy Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:00 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:00 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
18 Jan 2021 13:00 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
18 Jan 2021 15:45 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 15:45 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 15:45 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 15:45 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 01:15 Antavy Atsimo Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 01:15 Ampary Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 07:30 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
18 Jan 2021 07:30 Tampina Madagascar  0.1