Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
19 Jan 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 97 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (19 Jan 21:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 97 km/h 0.6 m 665 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 2.3 m 907 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

Up to 90 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar85,209 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 19 Jan 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Jan 2021 12:00 140 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar461,721 
100-250 mmTanzania, Malawi, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Reunion3,918,040
+
Tanzania2,073 
Malawi7,741 
Mozambique35,501 
Madagascar3,800,070 
Zimbabwe28,740 
Reunion43,915 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa4,947,345
+
Tanzania284,683 
Malawi559,606 
Zambia54,572 
Mozambique575,616 
Madagascar2,012,549 
Mayotte9,066 
Zimbabwe892,356 
Reunion155,678 
South Africa403,219 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 179 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 00:00 390 80 thousand
- - - Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 12:00 176 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 280 2 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 12:00 299 40 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 6 19 Jan 2021 00:00 504 140 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 7 19 Jan 2021 12:00 803 4.4 million
- - - Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC