Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
20 Jan 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mozambique
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 104 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.9 m (23 Jan 06:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 104 km/h 2.9 m 492 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 2.3 m 907 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

Up to 1.5 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mozambique171 
Tropical StormMadagascar, Mozambique1,523,565
+
Madagascar243,103 
Mozambique1,280,462 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 19 Jan 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Jan 2021 12:00 97 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 8 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 20 Jan 2021 12:00 220 Few people
- - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar, Mozambique651,738
+
Madagascar23,157 
Mozambique628,581 
100-250 mmTanzania, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Reunion2,363,605
+
Tanzania2,515 
Malawi71 
Madagascar825,115 
Mozambique1,379,777 
Zimbabwe15,785 
Reunion140,342 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Reunion4,577,559
+
Tanzania106,868 
Malawi492,427 
Zambia24,617 
Madagascar351,426 
Mozambique2,825,624 
Zimbabwe752,403 
Reunion24,194 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 179 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 00:00 390 80 thousand
- - - Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 12:00 176 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 280 2 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 12:00 299 40 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 6 19 Jan 2021 00:00 504 140 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 7 19 Jan 2021 12:00 665 710 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 8 20 Jan 2021 00:00 360 400 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 9 20 Jan 2021 12:00 614 3 million
- - - Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

2.9 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC