Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
01 Jul 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (01 Jul 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 76 km/h 0.5 m 171 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 94 km/h 1.3 m 414 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to 40 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormGuadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia35,553
+
Guadeloupe1,211 
Dominica4,079 
Martinique23,625 
Saint Lucia6,637 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 30 Jun 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 00:00 79 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmDominican Republic, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama776,864
+
Dominican Republic187,958 
Costa Rica69,714 
Venezuela480,213 
Panama38,978 
50-100 mmUnited States, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Martinique, Saint Lucia, El Salvador, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Colombia, Venezuela, Panama11,072,444
+
United States47,243 
Dominican Republic5,190,470 
Haiti113,256 
Puerto Rico16,721 
Dominica8,838 
Martinique74,559 
Saint Lucia16,259 
El Salvador548 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines104,747 
Barbados284,214 
Honduras6,740 
Nicaragua36,072 
Costa Rica2,764,509 
Colombia304,931 
Venezuela1,452,536 
Panama650,795 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia
Blue 2 30 Jun 2021 12:00 332 10 thousand
- - - - Honduras, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Panama
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 00:00 320 780 thousand
- - - - United States, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, El Salvador, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Colombia, Venezuela, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC