Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for GRACE-21 in Mexico from 13 Aug 2021 15:00 UTC to 21 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for GRACE-21

in Mexico

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GRACE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	United States, Cuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	94 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.1 m (16 Aug 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	94 km/h	1.1 m	120 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	137 km/h	1.1 m	350 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

137 km/h

Up to 80 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	United States, Cuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands	82,818	+
	United States	8,981
	Cuba	2,206
	Mexico	13,961
	Cayman Islands	57,668

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	13 Aug 2021 12:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Aug 2021 18:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	14 Aug 2021 00:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	14 Aug 2021 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Aug 2021 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	14 Aug 2021 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	15 Aug 2021 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	15 Aug 2021 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	15 Aug 2021 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	15 Aug 2021 18:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	16 Aug 2021 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	16 Aug 2021 06:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	16 Aug 2021 12:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	United States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Costa Rica	1,343,949	+
	United States	2,791
	Cuba	38,002
	Dominican Republic	817,681
	Haiti	459,296
	Costa Rica	26,178
50-100 mm	United States, Cuba, Cayman Islands, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica	19,716,637	+
	United States	19,984
	Cuba	102,804
	Cayman Islands	59,967
	Mexico	2,957,800
	Dominican Republic	4,054,560
	Haiti	4,789,383
	Jamaica	884,851
	Guatemala	112,558
	El Salvador	3,958,337
	Honduras	45,354
	Nicaragua	44,436
	Colombia	252,039
	Venezuela	21,662
	Trinidad and Tobago	467,181
	Costa Rica	1,945,714

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	13 Aug 2021 12:00	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Aug 2021 18:00	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	14 Aug 2021 00:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Cuba
4	14 Aug 2021 06:00	139	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Aug 2021 12:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Cuba
6	14 Aug 2021 18:00	77	-		-	-	-	-	-	Costa Rica
7	15 Aug 2021 00:00	71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	15 Aug 2021 06:00	62	-		-	-	-	-	-	Venezuela
9	15 Aug 2021 12:00	138	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	15 Aug 2021 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	16 Aug 2021 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	16 Aug 2021 06:00	129	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	16 Aug 2021 12:00	316	1.3 million			-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba, Cayman Islands, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.1 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.