Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for GRACE-21
in Mexico
15 Aug 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GRACE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (15 Aug 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 65 km/h 0.3 m 62 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 1.1 m 350 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 220 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico217,338
+
United States2,830 
Dominican Republic15,477 
Puerto Rico199,030 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 13 Aug 2021 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 13 Aug 2021 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 14 Aug 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 14 Aug 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 14 Aug 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 14 Aug 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 15 Aug 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 15 Aug 2021 06:00 90 -
- - - - - United States, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmDominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S.1,846,280
+
Dominican Republic1,738,177 
Puerto Rico98,672 
Virgin Islands, U.S.9,430 
100-250 mmDominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Mexico, Costa Rica6,612,461
+
Mexico86,106 
Dominican Republic4,389,492 
Puerto Rico1,385,029 
Virgin Islands, U.S.83,721 
Costa Rica668,111 
50-100 mmUnited States, Haiti, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guatemala, El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Colombia, Venezuela16,079,850
+
United States25,448 
Haiti735,014 
Mexico1,647,385 
Dominican Republic1,592,162 
Puerto Rico2,022,097 
British Virgin Islands28,233 
Virgin Islands, U.S.13,138 
Guatemala2,233,819 
El Salvador3,994,909 
Trinidad and Tobago783,534 
Costa Rica2,705,926 
Colombia84,976 
Venezuela213,202 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 13 Aug 2021 12:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 13 Aug 2021 18:00 45 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 14 Aug 2021 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 4 14 Aug 2021 06:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 14 Aug 2021 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 6 14 Aug 2021 18:00 77 -
- - - - - Costa Rica
Blue 7 15 Aug 2021 00:00 71 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 15 Aug 2021 06:00 345 8.5 million
- - - United States, Haiti, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, U.S., Guatemala, El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, Colombia, Venezuela




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC