Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for GRACE-21 in Mexico from 13 Aug 2021 15:00 UTC to 21 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for GRACE-21

in Mexico

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GRACE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S.
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	58 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (14 Aug 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	58 km/h	0.3 m	77 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	137 km/h	1.1 m	350 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

137 km/h

Up to 30 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S.	30,764	+
	Puerto Rico	9,837
	Virgin Islands, U.S.	20,927

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	13 Aug 2021 12:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Aug 2021 18:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	14 Aug 2021 00:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	14 Aug 2021 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Aug 2021 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	14 Aug 2021 18:00	76	-		-	-	-	-	-	Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S.

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Dominican Republic	1,488,577
100-250 mm	United States, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Haiti, Virgin Islands, U.S., Costa Rica	8,613,787	+
	United States	18,023
	Dominican Republic	5,618,139
	Puerto Rico	296,886
	Virgin Islands, U.S.	49,714
	Haiti	19,614
	Costa Rica	2,611,408
50-100 mm	United States, Dominican Republic, Mexico, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Haiti, Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint-Barthélemy, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago	10,209,323	+
	United States	4,138
	Dominican Republic	1,113,735
	Mexico	1,391,259
	British Virgin Islands	29,817
	Puerto Rico	3,360,889
	Virgin Islands, U.S.	56,576
	Haiti	88,787
	Anguilla	14,614
	Saint-Martin	41,651
	Sint Maarten	39,623
	Saint-Barthélemy	10,440
	Saint Kitts and Nevis	15,261
	Montserrat	5,124
	Guatemala	1,654,730
	Honduras	4,635
	Nicaragua	19,382
	Colombia	85,830
	Venezuela	638,355
	Costa Rica	921,505
	Trinidad and Tobago	712,963

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	13 Aug 2021 12:00	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Aug 2021 18:00	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	14 Aug 2021 00:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Cuba
4	14 Aug 2021 06:00	139	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Aug 2021 12:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Cuba
6	14 Aug 2021 18:00	413	10.1 million				-	-	-	United States, Dominican Republic, Mexico, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Haiti, Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint-Barthélemy, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.