Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for GRACE-21
in Mexico
18 Aug 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GRACE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Cuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands, Jamaica
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (18 Aug 01:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 86 km/h 0.5 m 86 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 1.1 m 350 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 200 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormCuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands, Jamaica195,284
+
Cuba233 
Mexico22,964 
Cayman Islands59,967 
Jamaica112,119 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 13 Aug 2021 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 13 Aug 2021 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 14 Aug 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 14 Aug 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 14 Aug 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 14 Aug 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 15 Aug 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 15 Aug 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 15 Aug 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 15 Aug 2021 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 16 Aug 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 16 Aug 2021 06:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 16 Aug 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 14 16 Aug 2021 18:00 94 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 15 17 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 17 Aug 2021 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 17 Aug 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 17 Aug 2021 18:00 79 -
- - - - - Jamaica
GREEN 19 18 Aug 2021 00:00 122 -
- - - - - Cuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands, Jamaica
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico, Cayman Islands, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica592,960
+
Mexico156,270 
Cayman Islands57,668 
Honduras1,935 
Nicaragua159,428 
Costa Rica217,657 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Martinique, El Salvador, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago21,364,388
+
United States139,893 
Mexico2,274,309 
Belize110,905 
Guatemala3,767,304 
Honduras2,069,192 
Nicaragua2,501,595 
Martinique06 
El Salvador4,335,516 
Colombia2,660,734 
Venezuela417,014 
Costa Rica3,079,826 
Trinidad and Tobago8,086 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 13 Aug 2021 12:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 13 Aug 2021 18:00 45 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 14 Aug 2021 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 4 14 Aug 2021 06:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 14 Aug 2021 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Cuba
Blue 6 14 Aug 2021 18:00 77 -
- - - - - Costa Rica
Blue 7 15 Aug 2021 00:00 71 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 15 Aug 2021 06:00 62 -
- - - - - Venezuela
Blue 9 15 Aug 2021 12:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 15 Aug 2021 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 16 Aug 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 16 Aug 2021 06:00 129 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 16 Aug 2021 12:00 120 -
- - - - - United States, Dominican Republic
Blue 14 16 Aug 2021 18:00 93 -
- - - - - Dominican Republic, Haiti
Blue 15 17 Aug 2021 00:00 106 -
- - - - - Haiti
Blue 16 17 Aug 2021 06:00 168 -
- - - - - Haiti
Blue 17 17 Aug 2021 12:00 141 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 17 Aug 2021 18:00 96 -
- - - - - Jamaica
Blue 19 18 Aug 2021 00:00 232 590 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Cayman Islands, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Martinique, El Salvador, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC