Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for GRACE-21 in Mexico from 13 Aug 2021 15:00 UTC to 21 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for GRACE-21

in Mexico

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GRACE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Saba, Saint Eustatius, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (14 Aug 16:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	65 km/h	0.3 m	90 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	137 km/h	1.1 m	350 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

137 km/h

Up to 3.7 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Saba, Saint Eustatius, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat	3,658,474	+
	Dominican Republic	1,004,370
	British Virgin Islands	24,311
	Puerto Rico	2,368,081
	Virgin Islands, U.S.	106,235
	Saba	2,013
	Saint Eustatius	4,449
	Saint Kitts and Nevis	55,571
	Antigua and Barbuda	90,007
	Montserrat	3,432

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	13 Aug 2021 12:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Aug 2021 18:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	14 Aug 2021 00:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	14 Aug 2021 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Aug 2021 12:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Saba, Saint Eustatius, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	United States, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands, U.S., Saint Kitts and Nevis, Venezuela, Costa Rica	10,537,570	+
	United States	283
	Dominican Republic	7,150,356
	British Virgin Islands	25,568
	Puerto Rico	3,094,931
	Virgin Islands, U.S.	106,290
	Saint Kitts and Nevis	15,288
	Venezuela	02
	Costa Rica	144,847
50-100 mm	United States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Mexico, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint-Barthélemy, Antigua and Barbuda, Saba, Saint Eustatius, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Guatemala, Guadeloupe, El Salvador, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago	9,899,975	+
	United States	749,635
	Cuba	255,908
	Dominican Republic	2,140,952
	Mexico	1,215,160
	British Virgin Islands	4,548
	Puerto Rico	588,301
	Anguilla	14,614
	Saint-Martin	41,651
	Sint Maarten	39,623
	Saint-Barthélemy	10,440
	Antigua and Barbuda	91,818
	Saba	2,013
	Saint Eustatius	4,449
	Saint Kitts and Nevis	40,283
	Montserrat	5,124
	Guatemala	354,299
	Guadeloupe	11,326
	El Salvador	71,131
	Colombia	45,198
	Venezuela	1,332,225
	Costa Rica	2,817,302
	Trinidad and Tobago	63,963

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	13 Aug 2021 12:00	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Aug 2021 18:00	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	14 Aug 2021 00:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Cuba
4	14 Aug 2021 06:00	139	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Aug 2021 12:00	253	10.5 million			-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Mexico, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint-Barthélemy, Antigua and Barbuda, Saba, Saint Eustatius, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Guatemala, Guadeloupe, El Salvador, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.