Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for GRACE-21 in Mexico from 13 Aug 2021 15:00 UTC to 21 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for GRACE-21

in Mexico

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GRACE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S.
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	58 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (14 Aug 06:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	58 km/h	0.3 m	139 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	137 km/h	1.1 m	350 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

137 km/h

Up to 910 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S.	905,444	+
	Dominican Republic	27,605
	British Virgin Islands	275
	Puerto Rico	822,488
	Virgin Islands, U.S.	55,075

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	13 Aug 2021 12:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Aug 2021 18:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	14 Aug 2021 00:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	14 Aug 2021 06:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S.

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	United States, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Venezuela, Costa Rica	3,321,944	+
	United States	45,046
	British Virgin Islands	30,117
	Puerto Rico	2,990,620
	Virgin Islands, U.S.	84,115
	Venezuela	22,283
	Costa Rica	149,761
50-100 mm	United States, Cuba, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint-Barthélemy, Virgin Islands, U.S., Antigua and Barbuda, Saba, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, El Salvador, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica	9,361,170	+
	United States	1,079,325
	Cuba	476,753
	Mexico	1,933,819
	Puerto Rico	657,883
	Virgin Islands, U.S.	22,175
	Anguilla	14,614
	Saint-Martin	41,651
	Sint Maarten	39,623
	Saint-Barthélemy	10,440
	Antigua and Barbuda	10,686
	Saba	2,013
	Saint Kitts and Nevis	6,747
	Guadeloupe	103,028
	Guatemala	724,616
	El Salvador	58,191
	Colombia	75,417
	Venezuela	1,564,306
	Trinidad and Tobago	4,567
	Costa Rica	2,535,307

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	13 Aug 2021 12:00	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Aug 2021 18:00	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	14 Aug 2021 00:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Cuba
4	14 Aug 2021 06:00	275	3.3 million			-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba, Mexico, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S., Anguilla, Saint-Martin, Sint Maarten, Saint-Barthélemy, Antigua and Barbuda, Saba, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, El Salvador, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.