Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for CHANTHU-21 in China, Philippines from 06 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 18 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for CHANTHU-21

in China, Philippines

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHANTHU-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Russia, Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, Philippines
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	119 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (12 Sep 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	119 km/h	0.8 m	330 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	169 km/h	1.5 m	713 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Russia, Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, Philippines	5,910,461	+
	Russia	1,128
	Japan	83,387
	South Korea	1,741
	China	5,804,910
	Taiwan	3,107
	Philippines	16,186

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	05 Sep 2021 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	06 Sep 2021 00:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	North Korea
3	06 Sep 2021 12:00	94	-		-	-	-	-	-	North Korea, Philippines
4	07 Sep 2021 00:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
5	07 Sep 2021 12:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
6	08 Sep 2021 00:00	133	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
7	08 Sep 2021 12:00	122	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
8	09 Sep 2021 00:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	09 Sep 2021 12:00	176	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	10 Sep 2021 00:00	169	-		-	-	-	-	-	Paracel Islands
11	10 Sep 2021 12:00	155	1 thousand			-	-	-	-	Philippines, Paracel Islands
12	11 Sep 2021 00:00	176	10 thousand				-	-	-	Taiwan, Philippines
13	11 Sep 2021 12:00	151	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan, Taiwan, Philippines
14	12 Sep 2021 00:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	Russia, Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, Philippines

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

713 mm

Up to 113.3 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
500-750 mm	China	503
250-500 mm	South Korea, China	8,712,425	+
	China	8,525,715
	South Korea	186,709
100-250 mm	Russia, South Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines	104,541,727	+
	Russia	27
	Japan	556,589
	China	103,448,369
	South Korea	463,540
	Taiwan	22,742
	Philippines	50,458
50-100 mm	Russia, Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines	29,182,036	+
	Russia	1,640
	Japan	1,926,568
	China	17,502,573
	South Korea	1,551,213
	Taiwan	3,949,559
	Philippines	4,250,480

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	05 Sep 2021 12:00	194	8 thousand		-	-	-	-	China, Japan
2	06 Sep 2021 00:00	306	20 thousand			-	-	-	China, South Korea, Japan, Philippines
3	06 Sep 2021 12:00	306	500 thousand			-	-	-	North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Paracel Islands, Philippines
4	07 Sep 2021 00:00	284	820 thousand			-	-	-	North Korea, South Korea, China, Philippines
5	07 Sep 2021 12:00	345	550 thousand			-	-	-	Japan, China, Philippines
6	08 Sep 2021 00:00	272	14.4 million			-	-	-	Japan, China, Philippines, Micronesia
7	08 Sep 2021 12:00	331	90 thousand		-	-	-	-	Japan, Philippines
8	09 Sep 2021 00:00	314	-	-	-	-	-	-	Japan
9	09 Sep 2021 12:00	282	-	-	-	-	-	-	China, Paracel Islands, Philippines
10	10 Sep 2021 00:00	335	30 thousand		-	-	-	-	Philippines, Paracel Islands
11	10 Sep 2021 12:00	335	330 thousand		-	-	-	-	Russia, Philippines
12	11 Sep 2021 00:00	323	40 thousand			-	-	-	Russia, Taiwan, Philippines
13	11 Sep 2021 12:00	259	100 thousand		-	-	-	-	China, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines
14	12 Sep 2021 00:00	617	113.3 million				-	-	Russia, Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.8 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.