Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for TAUKTAE-21 in India, Pakistan from 14 May 2021 06:00 UTC to 17 May 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for TAUKTAE-21

in India, Pakistan

16 May 2021 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TAUKTAE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	India, Pakistan
Exposed population	1.1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	187 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (16 May 03:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	187 km/h	0.7 m	288 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	223 km/h	2.5 m	1057 mm	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

223 km/h

Up to 1.1 million in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 2	India	53,113
CAT. 1	India	1,066,068
Tropical Storm	India, Pakistan	69,437,116	+
	India	68,706,402
	Pakistan	730,714

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	133	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
7	15 May 2021 18:00	158	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
8	16 May 2021 00:00	212	1.1 million				-	-	-	India, Pakistan

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	India	683,236
100-250 mm	India	55,386,851
50-100 mm	India, Pakistan	25,543,046	+
	India	25,437,656
	Pakistan	105,389

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	372	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	387	420 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	546	Few people			-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	270	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
7	15 May 2021 18:00	241	8 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
8	16 May 2021 00:00	605	56.1 million				-	-	-	India, Pakistan

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in Marmagao, India. This height is estimated for 16 May 2021 03:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 May 2021 03:45	Marmagao	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 03:45	Vasco Da Gama	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 03:45	Panaji	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 03:45	Agacaim	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 03:45	Madgaon	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 04:00	Vengurla	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 04:00	Terekhol	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 03:30	Chopdem	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 03:30	Anjuna	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 04:15	Advota	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 04:15	Chaudi	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 03:45	Majali	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 03:30	Sadashivgarh	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 03:30	Karwar	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 03:45	Belekeri	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 03:45	Ankola	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 03:45	Gokarn	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 04:00	Malvan	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 05:45	Devgarh	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 05:45	Achra	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 05:45	Pural	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 06:00	Vijayadurg	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 02:45	Kumta	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 02:45	Honavar	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 02:45	Manki	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 02:15	Mavalli	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 02:15	Shirali	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 02:15	Bhatkal	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 00:30	Pooneryn	Sri Lanka	0.3
	16 May 2021 00:30	Aliavalai	Sri Lanka	0.3
	16 May 2021 00:30	Kavutarimunai	Sri Lanka	0.3
	16 May 2021 00:30	Nawaladi	Sri Lanka	0.3
	16 May 2021 02:30	Bainduru	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 02:30	Chittadi	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 05:45	Adiura	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 00:00	Ampan	Sri Lanka	0.3
	16 May 2021 06:00	Purangad	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 04:45	Purnagad	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 03:00	Kundapura	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 00:00	Jaffna	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 06:00	Ratnagiri	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 02:15	Udipi	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 04:30	Mirya	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 02:00	Mangaluru	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 02:00	Manjeshwaram	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 02:45	Mulki	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 00:30	Murud	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 00:30	Agar Panchaitan	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 04:45	Jaigarh	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 02:15	Kumbla	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 06:00	Chiruttoppu	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 06:00	Mannar	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 06:00	Periyavilankuli	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 06:00	Attimoddai	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 02:15	Kasaragod	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 02:15	Bekal	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 02:15	Nileshwar	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 05:15	Talaimannar	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 00:00	Kayts	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 00:00	Kiranchi	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 05:30	Boria	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 05:30	Guhagar	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 02:00	Chervattur	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 05:00	Silavatturai	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 05:45	Anjanwel	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 01:30	Kurichchikadu	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:15	Trikkaripur	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:15	Madayipara	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:15	Madayi	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:15	Kannapuram	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:15	Chirakkal	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:15	Valapattanam	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:15	Azhikkal	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:15	Cannanore	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 00:15	Vellankulam	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 00:45	Sur Masirah	Oman	0.1
	16 May 2021 00:45	'Urf	Oman	0.1
	16 May 2021 00:45	Mursays	Oman	0.1
	16 May 2021 00:45	Hiql	Oman	0.1
	16 May 2021 00:45	Dawwah	Oman	0.1
	16 May 2021 00:45	Maghilah	Oman	0.1
	16 May 2021 00:45	Shiinzi	Oman	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:30	Edakkad	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:30	Dharmadam	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:30	Tellicherry	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:30	Mahe	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:30	Badagara	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:30	Payyoli	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 05:45	Srivardhan	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 05:45	Bankot	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 05:45	Kelshi	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 00:45	Kathiwadar Bandar	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 00:45	Mahuva	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 01:15	Alibag	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 01:15	Revadanda	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 04:30	Anaippapan	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:45	Dongri	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:45	Malad	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:45	Vasai	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:45	Mira Bhayandar	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:45	Navghar	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 02:45	Trombay	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.