Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PAWAN-19 in Somalia, Ethiopia from 03 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC to 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19

in Somalia, Ethiopia

07 Dec 2019 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (07 Dec 02:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	65 km/h	0.2 m	198 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	79 km/h	0.3 m	778 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	02 Dec 2019 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Dec 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	04 Dec 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	04 Dec 2019 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	05 Dec 2019 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	05 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Dec 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Djibouti, Somalia, Ethiopia	29,848	+
	Djibouti	134
	Somalia	13,027
	Ethiopia	16,687
50-100 mm	Oman, Djibouti, Somalia, Ethiopia	801,112	+
	Oman	232
	Djibouti	389,008
	Somalia	212,673
	Ethiopia	199,199

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	02 Dec 2019 12:00	476	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Dec 2019 00:00	508	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	04 Dec 2019 00:00	204	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	04 Dec 2019 12:00	262	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	05 Dec 2019 00:00	427	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	05 Dec 2019 12:00	172	-		-	-	-	-	-	Somalia
8	06 Dec 2019 00:00	213	Few people			-	-	-	-	Somalia
9	06 Dec 2019 12:00	292	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	Somalia
10	07 Dec 2019 00:00	349	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	Oman, Djibouti, Somalia, Ethiopia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in 'Ag, Somalia. This height is estimated for 07 Dec 2019 02:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	07 Dec 2019 02:30	'Ag	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Baarbacadle	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Eyl	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Daga Laha Uein	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 14:00	Tadjoura	Djibouti	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 02:15	Denouda Digdiglei	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 02:15	Gaalacoodday	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 02:15	Hen Daier	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 02:15	Hobyo	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Harag Jid	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 07:00	Ceel Dhahanaan	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Bargaal	Somalia	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 04:45	Darimoh	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 04:30	Boosaaso	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 04:30	Marero	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 04:30	Bacaad	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Sala Gon	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Hurdiyo	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Xaafuun	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 01:00	Dauli	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Culli	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 01:15	Ascira	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 13:45	Deh-Cabo	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:45	Bola Cohuan	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 01:45	Eddi Gellei	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 01:45	Bandarbeyla	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:45	Cal Marthal	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Ceelbacduur	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Cadayo	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Beylu	Eritrea	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:30	Al Mansuri	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:30	Kraytar	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:15	Garahadde	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:00	Takhushih	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:00	Saylac	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:45	Anteral	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 13:00	Alela	Eritrea	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 13:00	Aseb	Eritrea	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:45	Midi	Yemen	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:45	Al Kharamilah	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Aiesloho	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:00	Mach	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:45	Al Madasikah	Yemen	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:15	Al Qahmah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:15	Musaykah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:45	Khormaksar	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:45	'Adan	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:45	Laasqoray	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:30	Khatib	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:30	Haima	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:30	Fugwa	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:30	Bu Tawq	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:30	Sajid	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:30	Humr	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 23:30	Farasan	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 20:15	Kamaran	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 20:15	Sayfaf	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 20:15	Al Jazirah	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 20:15	Qurayyah	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 20:15	Al Khawbah	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 20:15	Ibn Abbas	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Lakba	Oman	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Sawqirah	Oman	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Lakabi	Oman	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Qaysad	Oman	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Berbera	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:45	Madinat ash Shab	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:45	'Imran	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 01:30	Tooxin	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Murad	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Muhammad 'Ali Bin Fatha Sumana	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Al Hajaf	Yemen	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:15	Hajambar	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:15	'Arid	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Loyado	Djibouti	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 02:45	Djibouti	Djibouti	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:30	Aantaara	Somalia	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 00:00	Rehayto	Eritrea	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.