Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AMPHAN-20
in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan
17 May 2020 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AMPHAN-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries India, Bangladesh
Exposed population 2.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 148 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (17 May 18:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 148 km/h 0.2 m 206 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 263 km/h 2.4 m 749 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

263 km/h

Up to 2.4 million in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Bangladesh, India201
+
India15 
Bangladesh186 
CAT. 1Bangladesh, India2,381,231
+
India2,263,612 
Bangladesh117,619 
Tropical StormIndia, Bangladesh148,193,638
+
India48,269,199 
Bangladesh99,924,439 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 May 2020 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 16 May 2020 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 16 May 2020 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 17 May 2020 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 17 May 2020 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 17 May 2020 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 17 May 2020 18:00 212 2.4 million
- - - India, Bangladesh
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmBangladesh, India2,280,481
+
Bangladesh159,393 
India2,121,088 
100-250 mmBangladesh, India, Burma55,606,089
+
Bangladesh24,840,377 
Burma899,557 
India29,866,155 
50-100 mmChina, Bangladesh, Burma, India81,328,669
+
China16,120 
Bangladesh50,504,785 
Burma16,087,846 
India14,719,918 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 May 2020 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 16 May 2020 12:00 99 -
- - - - - India
Blue 3 16 May 2020 18:00 168 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 17 May 2020 00:00 207 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 17 May 2020 06:00 172 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 17 May 2020 12:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 17 May 2020 18:00 541 57.9 million
- - - China, Bangladesh, Burma, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Gangra, India. This height is estimated for 17 May 2020 18:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17 May 2020 18:15 Gangra India  0.2
17 May 2020 18:15 Kakdwip India  0.2
17 May 2020 18:15 Namkhana India  0.2
17 May 2020 18:15 Belpukur India  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Dublat India  0.2
17 May 2020 20:30 Tawbaing Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 20:30 Alandaing Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 20:30 Hseikma Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 20:30 Dawnvein Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Mahameik Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Damathat Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Thaunggon Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Mibya Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Kala-ywa Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Ase-ywa Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Kavutarimunai Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Pooneryn Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Ampan Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 21:15 Hastmatabad India  0.1
17 May 2020 21:15 Hobdaypur India  0.1
17 May 2020 21:15 Mahglutan India  0.1
17 May 2020 21:15 Garacherama India  0.1
17 May 2020 21:15 Bamboo Flat India  0.1
17 May 2020 21:15 Rangachang India  0.1
17 May 2020 21:15 Jangli Ghat India  0.1
17 May 2020 21:15 Port Blair India  0.1
17 May 2020 21:30 Apaung Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 21:30 Akechaungwa Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:15 Jaffna Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Budin Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Zokali Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Kadaik Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:30 Hngetkyidaung Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:30 Thegondan Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Donwun Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 19:30 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Khindan Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 21:30 Pyapon Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 21:30 Ase Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 21:30 Tawgyaik Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Taungxun Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Darein Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Paung Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:15 Karuvaddukkeni Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 18:15 Pulmoddai Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 18:15 Analkaddimady Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Alanbya Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Kawbein Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:30 Nawaladi Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 21:00 Bogon Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 21:00 Aunghlaing Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 21:00 Polaung Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 21:00 Kadonkani Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 21:00 Yegyawgyi Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 22:00 Chaunggyi Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 19:15 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 19:15 Hatia Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 19:15 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 19:15 Nalchira Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 19:15 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 20:45 Ama Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 22:15 Kakinada India  0.1
17 May 2020 18:30 Kiranchi Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 23:00 Therunattam India  0.1
17 May 2020 20:30 Purnankuppam India  0.1
17 May 2020 20:30 Pondicherry India  0.1
17 May 2020 20:30 Kalapettai India  0.1