Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for TAUKTAE-21 in India, Pakistan from 14 May 2021 06:00 UTC to 17 May 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for TAUKTAE-21

in India, Pakistan

16 May 2021 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TAUKTAE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	India, Pakistan
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	180 km/h
Maximum storm surge	2.8 m (17 May 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	180 km/h	2.8 m	421 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	122 km/h	3.1 m	1400 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	India, Pakistan	33,165,958	+
	India	33,126,628
	Pakistan	39,329

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	13 May 2021 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	India
2	14 May 2021 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, India, Maldives
3	14 May 2021 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	India, Maldives
4	15 May 2021 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	India
6	16 May 2021 00:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	India
7	16 May 2021 12:00	198	-	-	-	-	-	-	India, Pakistan

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

1400 mm

Up to 75.7 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	India	583,225
100-250 mm	India	75,068,699
50-100 mm	India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka	84,962,166	+
	India	84,869,093
	Pakistan	59,602
	Sri Lanka	33,470

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	13 May 2021 12:00	345	-	-	-	-	-	-	India
2	14 May 2021 00:00	332	-	-	-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 12:00	460	140 thousand		-	-	-	-	India
4	15 May 2021 00:00	869	Few people		-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 12:00	352	620 thousand		-	-	-	-	India
6	16 May 2021 00:00	380	80 thousand		-	-	-	-	India
7	16 May 2021 12:00	466	75.7 million			-	-	-	India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

2.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 2.8m in Wadgam, India. This height is estimated for 17 May 2021 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 May 2021 23:00	Wadgam	India	2.8
	17 May 2021 23:00	Kambhat	India	2.8
	17 May 2021 23:00	Kavi	India	2.8
	17 May 2021 23:00	Sarod	India	2.8
	17 May 2021 23:15	Tankari	India	2.8
	17 May 2021 23:00	Asarsa	India	2.6
	17 May 2021 22:45	Harinagar	India	2.5
	17 May 2021 21:30	Ghogha	India	2.5
	17 May 2021 22:00	Dahej	India	2.4
	17 May 2021 22:30	Muler	India	2.4
	17 May 2021 20:30	Hansot	India	2.2
	17 May 2021 17:00	Kathiwadar Bandar	India	2.1
	17 May 2021 17:00	Mahuva	India	2.1
	17 May 2021 17:30	Kotada	India	2.1
	17 May 2021 19:15	Bhagva	India	2.1
	17 May 2021 16:30	Jafarabad	India	2.0
	17 May 2021 19:15	Damka	India	2.0
	17 May 2021 19:15	Olpad	India	2.0
	17 May 2021 16:15	Dharabandar	India	1.9
	17 May 2021 16:15	Rohisa	India	1.9
	17 May 2021 19:00	Surat	India	1.8
	17 May 2021 19:15	Jalalpur	India	1.7
	17 May 2021 19:15	Mahuver	India	1.7
	17 May 2021 18:45	Nausari	India	1.6
	17 May 2021 18:45	Navsari	India	1.6
	17 May 2021 16:00	Delvada	India	1.5
	17 May 2021 16:00	Nawabandar	India	1.5
	17 May 2021 18:30	Dharasana	India	1.5
	17 May 2021 18:30	Valsad	India	1.5
	17 May 2021 18:45	Bilimora	India	1.4
	17 May 2021 18:15	Udvada	India	1.4
	17 May 2021 18:00	Daman	India	1.3
	17 May 2021 17:45	Maroli	India	1.3
	17 May 2021 18:00	Umbargam	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 17:45	Bordi	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 17:45	Gholvad	India	1.1
	17 May 2021 17:45	Malyan	India	1.1
	17 May 2021 17:30	Sakhare	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 17:30	Tarapur	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 18:00	Boisar	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 16:00	Dangarvadi	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 15:45	Kotra Nes	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 17:45	Shirgaon	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 17:45	Palghar	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 17:45	Mahim	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 16:45	Agashi	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 16:45	Nalasopara	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 11:00	Malad	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 11:00	Mumbai	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 11:00	Asumumbay	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 11:00	Uran	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 11:00	Trombay	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 11:00	Diva	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 11:00	Taloje	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 14:15	Dongri	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 14:15	Vasai	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 14:15	Mira Bhayandar	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 18:30	Kodinar	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 14:45	Navghar	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 11:00	Mandve	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 18:30	Lodhwa	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 18:30	Sutrapada	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 10:45	Alibag	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 10:45	Revadanda	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 10:15	Murud	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 10:15	Agar Panchaitan	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 02:15	Bankot	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 02:15	Kelshi	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 12:00	Vengurla	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 12:00	Terekhol	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 18:30	Veraval	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 18:30	Somnath	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 22:00	Guhagar	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 22:00	Anjanwel	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 22:00	Boria	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 05:30	Srivardhan	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 22:45	Jaigarh	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 22:00	Mirya	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 22:00	Ratnagiri	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 12:45	Chopdem	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 12:45	Anjuna	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 12:15	Devgarh	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 12:15	Achra	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 12:15	Malvan	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 21:45	Purnagad	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 13:30	Marmagao	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 13:30	Vasco Da Gama	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 13:30	Panaji	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 19:45	Purangad	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 19:45	Adiura	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 12:00	Madgaon	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 13:30	Agacaim	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 12:00	Pural	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 12:15	Vijayadurg	India	0.4
	17 May 2021 18:30	Chorwad	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 13:15	Chiruttoppu	Sri Lanka	0.3
	16 May 2021 13:15	Mannar	Sri Lanka	0.3
	16 May 2021 13:15	Periyavilankuli	Sri Lanka	0.3
	16 May 2021 13:15	Attimoddai	Sri Lanka	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:00	Advota	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:00	Chaudi	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:00	Majali	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:00	Sadashivgarh	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:00	Karwar	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:00	Belekeri	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:00	Ankola	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 12:00	Gokarn	India	0.3
	19 May 2021 12:00	New Kandla	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 12:00	Navlakhi	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 19:00	Mangrol	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 12:00	Tuna	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 12:00	Jodiya	India	0.2
	18 May 2021 04:15	Jambura	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 13:15	Kumta	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Pooneryn	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Aliavalai	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 13:00	Honavar	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 13:00	Manki	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 22:30	Shil	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Kavutarimunai	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Nawaladi	Sri Lanka	0.2
	18 May 2021 17:45	Gorser	India	0.2
	18 May 2021 17:45	Ratia	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:45	Mavalli	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:45	Shirali	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:45	Bhatkal	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 09:30	Gadechi	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 09:30	Okha	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 09:30	Aramda	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:45	Ampan	Sri Lanka	0.2
	18 May 2021 00:15	Chudeswar	India	0.2
	18 May 2021 00:15	Salaya	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 21:30	Bainduru	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 12:00	Mundra	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 12:00	Sika	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:45	Chittadi	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 05:30	Adodar	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 06:00	Porbandar	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 09:45	Akri	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 06:15	Miyani	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 12:00	Jhankhar	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 06:15	Lamba	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 12:00	Navinal	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 17:30	Kundapura	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 09:30	Ghuar Mota	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 12:00	Bhadia	India	0.1
	18 May 2021 23:00	Jaffna	Sri Lanka	0.1
	17 May 2021 06:30	Ormara Raik	Pakistan	0.1
	17 May 2021 06:30	Ormara	Pakistan	0.1
	19 May 2021 06:30	Bhogat	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 17:30	Kayalpatnam	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 17:30	Thoothukkudi	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 06:45	Madhi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:15	Melmandai	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:15	Vembar	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 08:30	Suthri	India	0.1
	18 May 2021 11:30	Rumra	Pakistan	0.1
	18 May 2021 11:30	Kalat	Pakistan	0.1
	16 May 2021 22:00	Udipi	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 12:00	Mandvi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 16:45	Kattumavadi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 16:45	Atirampattinam	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 15:15	Nizampatam	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 15:15	Kottapalem	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 16:30	Manamelkudi	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 17:15	Tiruchendur	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 07:15	Dwarka	India	0.1
	18 May 2021 15:00	Kayts	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 21:00	Mulki	India	0.1
	18 May 2021 14:45	Kurichchikadu	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 21:00	Mangaluru	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 21:00	Manjeshwaram	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 21:00	Kumbla	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 06:45	Balaru	Pakistan	0.1
	18 May 2021 07:00	Miski	Pakistan	0.1
	18 May 2021 07:00	Pasni	Pakistan	0.1
	17 May 2021 15:00	Lankavanidibba	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 15:45	Kodigeri	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 15:45	Vedaranyam	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 15:45	Vedaranniyam	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.