Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
27 Aug 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 3 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 101 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (27 Aug 10:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 101 km/h 0.3 m 391 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 0.7 m 1646 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 1.2 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico2,838 
Tropical StormMexico1,212,262 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 155 3 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMexico03 
500-750 mmMexico3,808 
250-500 mmMexico434,035 
100-250 mmMexico3,363,044 
50-100 mmMexico3,111,245 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 289 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 488 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 413 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 318 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 363 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 763 3.8 million
- Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Cuamecate, Mexico. This height is estimated for 27 Aug 2021 10:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
27 Aug 2021 10:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.3
27 Aug 2021 10:30 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.3
27 Aug 2021 06:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 08:30 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 09:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 10:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 08:45 El Tule Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 08:45 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 10:45 Novillero Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 09:30 La Lima Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 07:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 06:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 10:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 12:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 10:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 09:45 Monteon Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 08:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 10:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 06:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 11:45 Calvario Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 11:45 Coyuquillas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 07:45 Chula Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 10:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 10:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 08:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 06:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 06:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 09:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 12:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 08:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 11:30 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 06:30 La Florida Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 09:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 11:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 10:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 08:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 11:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 09:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 10:45 Acapulco Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 10:45 El Marques Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 12:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 09:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 09:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 09:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 09:45 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 12:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 08:15 La Choya Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 10:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 06:00 Cedros Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 09:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 08:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 06:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 10:30 Chola Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 08:15 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 06:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 08:45 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 12:00 Chamela Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 09:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 09:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 07:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 06:30 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 10:30 Apisa Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 10:30 Cayaca Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 07:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 08:30 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 07:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1