Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico
07 Sep 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 43 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (10 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 43 km/h 0.6 m 36 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 122 km/h 0.4 m 445 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

122 km/h

Up to 370 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico370,738 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 130 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico351,055 
50-100 mmMexico189,921 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 288 350 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Puerto Cortes, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2021 18:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.6
10 Sep 2021 18:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.6
10 Sep 2021 18:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.6
10 Sep 2021 17:30 Quinones Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 11:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 17:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Cunano Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 03:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 04:15 La Choya Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 04:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 03:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 04:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 12:15 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:30 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 06:15 La Tinaja Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 07:30 Todos Santos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 San Lucas Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 07:30 El Pescadero Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 10:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 19:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 02:45 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 18:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 01:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 01:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 19:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 El Tule Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:30 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 04:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 10:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 10:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 10:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 05:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 09:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 09:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 23:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 15:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 17:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 00:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 04:45 Molino Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:15 Datilito Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 04:45 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 23:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:00 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 02:45 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 00:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 02:30 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:45 Rosario Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 01:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 13:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 00:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 02:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:30 La Lima Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 01:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 01:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 01:15 La Boca Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 01:45 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 01:45 Empalme Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 08:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 08:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 10:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 10:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:15 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:15 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:15 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 01:15 Altata Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 00:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 22:45 San Jose Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 22:45 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 22:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 03:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 17:30 Tripui Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 17:30 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 02:30 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 02:30 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 02:30 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1