Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico
09 Sep 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 108 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (10 Sep 07:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 108 km/h 0.3 m 72 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 122 km/h 0.4 m 445 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

122 km/h

Up to 730 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico729,944 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 09 Sep 2021 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 09 Sep 2021 12:00 122 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico453,553 
50-100 mmMexico267,238 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 36 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 137 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 09 Sep 2021 06:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 09 Sep 2021 12:00 187 450 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Datilito, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2021 07:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2021 07:15 Datilito Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 07:15 La Paz Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 07:15 Rosario Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 02:15 La Fortuna Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 02:15 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 02:15 Los Frailes Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 02:15 Los Tesos Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 23:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 23:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 23:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 09:15 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 02:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 08:15 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 11:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 05:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 03:00 La Florida Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 03:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 04:00 La Choya Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:45 Cunano Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:15 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:45 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:45 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:45 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 12:30 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 06:15 Todos Santos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:30 El Tule Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 06:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 22:15 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:00 San Lucas Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 23:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 17:15 Los Burros Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 17:30 Quinones Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 21:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:15 La Trinadad Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:15 Las Palmas Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 01:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 00:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 20:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 18:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 18:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 18:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:45 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:45 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 18:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 22:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 18:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 21:15 San Blas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 21:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 22:30 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 22:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:30 Novillero Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 18:30 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 18:30 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Empalme Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 17:45 Tripui Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:15 Altata Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 02:30 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 00:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 San Jose Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 08:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 08:15 Mulege Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 18:00 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 23:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 18:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 18:45 Monteon Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 18:45 La Lima Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 01:30 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Chola Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 Chamela Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 02:30 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Florida Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:30 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:30 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:15 Dimas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1