Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico
09 Sep 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (09 Sep 01:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 76 km/h 0.1 m 137 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 122 km/h 0.4 m 445 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

122 km/h

Up to 710 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico711,806 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 126 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico392,184 
50-100 mmMexico378,029 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 36 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 260 390 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Aguaje, Mexico. This height is estimated for 09 Sep 2021 01:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Sep 2021 01:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:30 La Lima Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:45 San Blas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 00:15 La Choya Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 00:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 02:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 00:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 00:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1