Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico
12 Sep 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 122 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (10 Sep 20:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 122 km/h 0.4 m 445 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 122 km/h 0.4 m 445 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico716,713 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 09 Sep 2021 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 09 Sep 2021 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 09 Sep 2021 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 10 Sep 2021 00:00 119 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 11 10 Sep 2021 06:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 12 10 Sep 2021 12:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 13 10 Sep 2021 18:00 94 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 14 11 Sep 2021 00:00 79 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 15 11 Sep 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 11 Sep 2021 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 11 Sep 2021 18:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 12 Sep 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

445 mm

Up to 920 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico923,911 
50-100 mmMexico5,470,749 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 36 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 137 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 09 Sep 2021 06:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 09 Sep 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 09 Sep 2021 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 10 Sep 2021 00:00 148 10 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 11 10 Sep 2021 06:00 104 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 10 Sep 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 13 10 Sep 2021 18:00 67 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 14 11 Sep 2021 00:00 35 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 11 Sep 2021 06:00 19 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 11 Sep 2021 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 11 Sep 2021 18:00 12 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 12 Sep 2021 00:00 265 390 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Puerto Cortes, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2021 20:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mMexico00
+
0.25 - 0.5 mMexico6,690 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2021 20:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 20:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 20:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 11:15 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 11:15 El Tomale Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 11:15 Cunano Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 09:45 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 03:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 03:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 03:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 02:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 02:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:15 Todos Santos Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:15 El Pescadero Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 12:15 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 04:00 La Choya Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 05:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 20:45 La Florida Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 20:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:15 La Tinaja Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 02:30 El Tule Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 08:30 Datilito Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 08:30 La Paz Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 08:30 Rosario Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 20:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 20:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 17:15 Quinones Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:30 San Lucas Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:15 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 06:15 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 01:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 03:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 01:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2021 04:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:45 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:45 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:45 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2021 03:45 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 10:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 10:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 10:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 02:45 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 01:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 01:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 07:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2021 03:30 Molino Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 03:30 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 03:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
07 Sep 2021 23:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:45 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:45 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 15:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 15:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 15:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 15:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 00:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 09:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 09:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 08:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 08:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 02:30 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:00 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:15 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 01:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:15 San Jose Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 20:15 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:30 Dimas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 01:45 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 01:45 Empalme Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 18:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 18:00 Mulege Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 02:45 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 00:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:00 Altata Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:15 Marmol Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:15 Florida Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 18:30 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 18:30 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 18:15 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:30 La Lima Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:45 La Boca Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 04:45 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 19:00 El Barril Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 13:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:30 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:30 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1