Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico
08 Sep 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 130 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (10 Sep 20:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 76 km/h 0.5 m 196 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 122 km/h 0.4 m 445 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

122 km/h

Up to 530 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico132,673 
Tropical StormMexico527,023 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 144 130 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico30,027 
100-250 mmMexico328,755 
50-100 mmMexico300,646 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 36 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 289 360 thousand
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Puerto Cortes, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2021 20:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2021 20:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.5
10 Sep 2021 20:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.5
10 Sep 2021 20:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.5
10 Sep 2021 01:00 San Lucas Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 01:00 El Tule Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 02:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 02:00 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 02:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 03:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 04:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Todos Santos Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 01:45 Los Tesos Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 01:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 01:45 Los Frailes Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 07:15 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 11:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 04:00 La Choya Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:00 Cunano Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 23:15 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 01:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 17:45 Quinones Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 01:45 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 05:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 05:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:45 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 20:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 07:30 Datilito Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:30 Rosario Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 05:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 15:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 12:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:30 San Blas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 08:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 08:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 08:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:45 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:45 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:45 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:30 Dimas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 14:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 14:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 14:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 08:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 08:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 08:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:15 Altata Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 05:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 02:30 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 08:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:15 Novillero Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:45 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 23:00 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:15 Marmol Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:15 Florida Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:15 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:30 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:45 Mulege Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:00 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:00 Empalme Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:45 La Boca Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:15 San Jose Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 21:00 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 16:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.1