Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 122 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (10 Sep 20:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 122 km/h 0.4 m 130 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 122 km/h 0.4 m 445 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico724,991 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 09 Sep 2021 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 09 Sep 2021 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 09 Sep 2021 18:00 122 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

445 mm

Up to 260 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico257,048 
50-100 mmMexico271,086 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 36 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 102 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 137 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 09 Sep 2021 06:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 09 Sep 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 09 Sep 2021 18:00 204 260 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Puerto Cortes, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2021 20:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2021 20:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 20:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 20:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 03:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 03:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 03:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 02:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 05:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 04:00 La Choya Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 08:15 Datilito Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 08:15 La Paz Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 08:15 Rosario Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 08:15 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 02:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 11:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:45 Cunano Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 12:30 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 07:15 Todos Santos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:15 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:30 El Tule Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 01:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 22:45 La Florida Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 22:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:30 San Lucas Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 04:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 20:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 20:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 15:45 Quinones Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 01:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:15 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:45 La Trinadad Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:45 Las Palmas Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 08:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 08:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:45 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:45 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 07:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 22:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 22:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 01:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 21:15 San Blas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 21:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 22:15 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 02:45 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 01:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 23:30 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:15 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 01:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:00 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:15 San Jose Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 02:30 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 01:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 01:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 01:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 01:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:00 Altata Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:45 Mulege Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:45 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:45 Empalme Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 18:30 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 18:30 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 01:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:45 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 01:00 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 18:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:45 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Chola Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Chamela Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:15 Dimas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 El Real Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 Apisa Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:30 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.1