Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19
in Somalia, Ethiopia
03 Dec 2019 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Yemen, Somalia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (03 Dec 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 90 km/h 0.3 m 268 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 108 km/h 0.4 m 491 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

108 km/h

Up to 10 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormYemen, Somalia9,838
+
Yemen1,229 
Somalia8,609 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Yemen, Somalia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmYemen, Somalia8,145
+
Yemen2,269 
Somalia5,876 
100-250 mmYemen, Somalia169,023
+
Yemen13,595 
Somalia155,428 
50-100 mmYemen, Somalia212,531
+
Yemen33,451 
Somalia179,080 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 175 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 232 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 706 180 thousand
- - - Yemen, Somalia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Baarbacadle, Somalia. This height is estimated for 03 Dec 2019 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
03 Dec 2019 19:00 Baarbacadle Somalia  0.3
03 Dec 2019 19:00 Eyl Somalia  0.3
03 Dec 2019 19:00 Daga Laha Uein Somalia  0.3
03 Dec 2019 20:30 Bargaal Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 20:30 Aiesloho Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 23:45 Sala Gon Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 23:45 Hurdiyo Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 23:45 Xaafuun Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 20:30 Mach Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 23:45 Ascira Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 20:45 Deh-Cabo Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 23:45 Cal Marthal Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 23:45 Dauli Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 20:15 Ceelbacduur Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 20:15 Ceel Dhahanaan Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 20:00 Hen Daier Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 18:15 'Ag Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 20:30 Eddi Gellei Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 20:30 Bola Cohuan Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 20:15 Hobyo Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 20:15 Garahadde Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 18:00 Boho Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 18:00 Wareegsimo Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 18:00 Bereeda Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 23:00 Lakba Oman  0.1
03 Dec 2019 23:00 Sawqirah Oman  0.1
03 Dec 2019 23:00 Lakabi Oman  0.1
03 Dec 2019 23:00 Qaysad Oman  0.1
03 Dec 2019 20:30 Cadayo Somalia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 19:45 Bandarbeyla Somalia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 20:30 Harag Jid Somalia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 21:45 Midi Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 21:45 Al Kharamilah Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 21:30 Al Madasikah Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 18:00 Qashlu Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 18:00 Qadub Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 18:00 Hadiboh Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 19:00 Rehayto Eritrea  0.1
03 Dec 2019 20:00 Culli Somalia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 18:00 Denouda Digdiglei Somalia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 18:00 Gaalacoodday Somalia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 20:00 Kamaran Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 20:00 Sayfaf Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 20:00 Al Jazirah Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 20:00 Qurayyah Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 20:00 Al Khawbah Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 20:00 Ibn Abbas Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 23:45 Sair Saudi Arabia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 23:45 Haima Saudi Arabia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 23:45 Fugwa Saudi Arabia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 23:45 Sajid Saudi Arabia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 23:45 Humr Saudi Arabia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 22:30 Darimoh Somalia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 20:00 Farasan Saudi Arabia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 18:00 Alela Eritrea  0.1
03 Dec 2019 18:00 Aseb Eritrea  0.1