Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19
in Somalia, Ethiopia
04 Dec 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Somalia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (04 Dec 15:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 72 km/h 0.4 m 111 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 108 km/h 0.4 m 491 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

108 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormSomalia196 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 97 -
- - - - - Somalia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmSomalia2,137 
100-250 mmSomalia110,827 
50-100 mmYemen, Somalia289,010
+
Yemen327 
Somalia288,683 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 175 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 232 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 268 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 348 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 438 110 thousand
- - - Yemen, Somalia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Baarbacadle, Somalia. This height is estimated for 04 Dec 2019 15:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
04 Dec 2019 15:45 Baarbacadle Somalia  0.4
04 Dec 2019 15:45 Eyl Somalia  0.4
04 Dec 2019 15:45 Daga Laha Uein Somalia  0.4
04 Dec 2019 17:15 Deh-Cabo Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 17:15 Hurdiyo Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 14:30 Bargaal Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 14:30 Aiesloho Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 17:30 Tadjoura Djibouti  0.3
04 Dec 2019 13:45 Hen Daier Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 14:15 Mach Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 16:45 Cal Marthal Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 16:45 Dauli Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 13:15 Ceelbacduur Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 13:15 Ceel Dhahanaan Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 13:30 Hobyo Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 13:30 Garahadde Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 17:30 Sala Gon Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 17:30 Xaafuun Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 13:00 Gaalacoodday Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 14:45 Tooxin Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 15:45 Bereeda Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 17:00 Harag Jid Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 13:15 Culli Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 16:30 Hadeytacawl Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 16:30 Sabawanaag Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 16:30 Biyafoge Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 16:30 Sheikh Ali Idris Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 14:45 Qishn Yemen  0.2
04 Dec 2019 16:45 Takhushih Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 16:45 Saylac Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 16:45 Loyado Djibouti  0.2
04 Dec 2019 17:15 Djibouti Djibouti  0.2
04 Dec 2019 18:00 Ascira Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 14:00 'Ag Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 17:15 Rehayto Eritrea  0.2
04 Dec 2019 13:30 Darimoh Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 14:45 Cadayo Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 13:00 Denouda Digdiglei Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 14:30 Eddi Gellei Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 14:30 Bola Cohuan Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 17:15 Obock Djibouti  0.1
04 Dec 2019 14:45 Bandarbeyla Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 17:00 Fagal Djibouti  0.1
04 Dec 2019 17:00 Khor Angar Djibouti  0.1
04 Dec 2019 15:30 Marero Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 15:30 Bacaad Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 15:30 Aantaara Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 17:00 Murad Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 17:00 Muhammad 'Ali Bin Fatha Sumana Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 17:00 Al Hajaf Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 15:15 Boho Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 15:15 Wareegsimo Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 16:30 Bullaxaar Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 16:45 Al Bahiyah Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 14:15 Lakba Oman  0.1
04 Dec 2019 14:15 Sawqirah Oman  0.1
04 Dec 2019 14:15 Lakabi Oman  0.1
04 Dec 2019 14:15 Qaysad Oman  0.1
04 Dec 2019 17:00 Mayyun Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 14:00 Gishub Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 16:30 Madinat ash Shab Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 16:30 'Imran Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 16:45 Qa'wa Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 16:30 Geeri Somalia  0.1