Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19
in Somalia, Ethiopia
05 Dec 2019 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Somalia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (06 Dec 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 79 km/h 0.3 m 283 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 108 km/h 0.4 m 491 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

108 km/h

Up to 10 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormSomalia14,892 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 04 Dec 2019 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 05 Dec 2019 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 05 Dec 2019 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 05 Dec 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 05 Dec 2019 18:00 79 -
- - - - - Somalia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmSomalia2,904 
250-500 mmSomalia28,473 
100-250 mmSomalia, Ethiopia197,081
+
Somalia188,430 
Ethiopia8,651 
50-100 mmSomalia, Ethiopia559,986
+
Somalia477,975 
Ethiopia82,011 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 175 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 232 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 268 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 348 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 111 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 04 Dec 2019 18:00 353 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 05 Dec 2019 00:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 05 Dec 2019 06:00 223 -
- - - - - Yemen
Blue 11 05 Dec 2019 12:00 265 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 05 Dec 2019 18:00 664 230 thousand
- - Somalia, Ethiopia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Cal Marthal, Somalia. This height is estimated for 06 Dec 2019 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Dec 2019 02:00 Cal Marthal Somalia  0.3
06 Dec 2019 02:00 Dauli Somalia  0.3
06 Dec 2019 08:00 Aiesloho Somalia  0.3
06 Dec 2019 08:00 Mach Somalia  0.3
06 Dec 2019 08:00 Tooxin Somalia  0.3
05 Dec 2019 18:45 Baarbacadle Somalia  0.3
05 Dec 2019 18:45 Eyl Somalia  0.3
05 Dec 2019 18:45 Daga Laha Uein Somalia  0.3
05 Dec 2019 21:30 Ceelbacduur Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 21:30 Ceel Dhahanaan Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 21:30 Ascira Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 03:15 Deh-Cabo Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 03:15 Hurdiyo Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 05:30 Xaafuun Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 07:45 Bargaal Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:45 Darimoh Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 09:30 Bola Cohuan Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 08:00 Sala Gon Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 23:00 Cadayo Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:30 Harag Jid Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 21:30 Gaalacoodday Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 13:45 'Ag Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 07:30 Eddi Gellei Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:15 Saylac Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 14:00 Garahadde Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Sheikh Ali Idris Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Bullaxaar Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 05:30 Bandar Jedid Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 04:30 Hen Daier Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 04:30 Hobyo Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:15 Loyado Djibouti  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:15 Takhushih Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 04:00 Culli Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 19:45 Bandarbeyla Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Geeri Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 19:30 Tadjoura Djibouti  0.2
05 Dec 2019 21:00 Rehayto Eritrea  0.2
05 Dec 2019 22:45 Qishn Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 19:45 Al Mansuri Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 19:45 Kraytar Yemen  0.2
06 Dec 2019 19:30 Denouda Digdiglei Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 05:30 Aantaara Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 05:30 Buro Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:15 Fagal Djibouti  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:15 Khor Angar Djibouti  0.1
06 Dec 2019 03:45 Botiala Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 21:45 Marero Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 21:45 Bacaad Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Hadeytacawl Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Sabawanaag Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Biyafoge Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 22:15 Tabut Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 22:15 Hayrut Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 22:15 Nishtun Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 21:15 Boho Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 21:15 Wareegsimo Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 21:15 Bereeda Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 03:30 Gishub Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 03:30 Steroh Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:30 Djibouti Djibouti  0.1
05 Dec 2019 21:00 Qashlu Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 21:00 Qadub Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 21:00 Hadiboh Yemen  0.1
07 Dec 2019 00:15 Qandala Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 21:30 Midi Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 21:30 Al Kharamilah Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 22:00 Beylu Eritrea  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Dhurbo Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Bandar Murcaayo Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Geesaley Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Abo Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:30 Mayyun Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 21:30 Al Madasikah Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 15:15 Al Qahmah Saudi Arabia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 15:15 Musaykah Saudi Arabia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 15:30 Ceelaayo Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 15:30 Bender Siyaada Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 18:45 Boosaaso Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 19:45 Ari Adeso Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 19:45 Al Bahiyah Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 23:00 Seyara Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 18:00 Sawqirah Oman  0.1
05 Dec 2019 18:00 Lakabi Oman  0.1
05 Dec 2019 18:00 Qaysad Oman  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:00 Mulaax Beyle Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Berbera Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Obock Djibouti  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Qa'wa Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Madinat ash Shab Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 06:30 Caluula Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 23:30 Hundegal Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 23:30 Laasqoray Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 19:30 Lakba Oman  0.1
06 Dec 2019 19:15 Kamaran Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 19:15 Sayfaf Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 19:15 Al Jazirah Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 19:15 Qurayyah Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 19:15 Al Khawbah Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 19:15 Ibn Abbas Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 23:45 Sair Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 23:45 Haima Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 23:45 Fugwa Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 23:45 Sajid Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 23:45 Humr Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Al Hajaf Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 13:30 Khatib Saudi Arabia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 13:30 Bu Tawq Saudi Arabia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 13:30 Farasan Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:15 Carmaale Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 18:15 Abd Allah Gharib Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 18:15 Jarub Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:15 Muhammad 'Ali Bin Fatha Sumana Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 18:15 Ghubbah Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:30 Murad Yemen  0.1