Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19
in Somalia, Ethiopia
05 Dec 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Yemen, Somalia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (05 Dec 15:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 90 km/h 0.3 m 265 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 108 km/h 0.4 m 491 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

108 km/h

Up to 10 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormYemen, Somalia12,969
+
Yemen796 
Somalia12,173 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 04 Dec 2019 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 05 Dec 2019 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 05 Dec 2019 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 05 Dec 2019 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Yemen, Somalia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmSomalia1,443 
250-500 mmSomalia, Ethiopia53,638
+
Somalia52,851 
Ethiopia787 
100-250 mmSomalia, Ethiopia680,564
+
Somalia573,995 
Ethiopia106,569 
50-100 mmYemen, Somalia, Ethiopia1,636,598
+
Yemen2,031 
Somalia900,969 
Ethiopia733,598 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 175 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 232 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 268 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 348 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 111 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 04 Dec 2019 18:00 353 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 05 Dec 2019 00:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 05 Dec 2019 06:00 223 -
- - - - - Yemen
Blue 11 05 Dec 2019 12:00 689 740 thousand
- - Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in 'Ag, Somalia. This height is estimated for 05 Dec 2019 15:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
05 Dec 2019 15:30 'Ag Somalia  0.3
05 Dec 2019 17:45 Hurdiyo Somalia  0.3
05 Dec 2019 17:45 Xaafuun Somalia  0.3
05 Dec 2019 21:00 Dauli Somalia  0.3
05 Dec 2019 18:45 Baarbacadle Somalia  0.3
05 Dec 2019 18:45 Eyl Somalia  0.3
05 Dec 2019 18:45 Daga Laha Uein Somalia  0.3
05 Dec 2019 16:30 Ascira Somalia  0.3
05 Dec 2019 17:45 Hobyo Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 17:45 Garahadde Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 03:15 Bargaal Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 15:00 Aiesloho Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 15:00 Mach Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 21:30 Ceelbacduur Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 21:30 Ceel Dhahanaan Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 08:00 Tooxin Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 02:00 Cal Marthal Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 19:45 Bola Cohuan Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:45 Darimoh Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 03:45 Eddi Gellei Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 13:30 Deh-Cabo Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 13:30 Cadayo Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:30 Harag Jid Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 16:15 Gaalacoodday Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:15 Saylac Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 14:00 Hen Daier Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 14:00 Sala Gon Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 13:00 Bandarbeyla Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Sheikh Ali Idris Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Bullaxaar Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 12:00 Hadeytacawl Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 12:00 Sabawanaag Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 12:00 Biyafoge Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:15 Loyado Djibouti  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:15 Takhushih Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 12:00 Beylu Eritrea  0.2
05 Dec 2019 13:30 Culli Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Geeri Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Boho Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Wareegsimo Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Bereeda Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 05:30 Aantaara Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 05:30 Buro Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 21:00 Rehayto Eritrea  0.2
05 Dec 2019 14:00 Marero Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 14:00 Bacaad Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 19:30 Tadjoura Djibouti  0.2
05 Dec 2019 19:45 Al Mansuri Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 19:45 Kraytar Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 12:30 Al Qahmah Saudi Arabia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 12:30 Musaykah Saudi Arabia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:15 Fagal Djibouti  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:15 Khor Angar Djibouti  0.2
06 Dec 2019 05:30 Bandar Jedid Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 19:30 Denouda Digdiglei Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 22:00 Qashlu Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 22:00 Qadub Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 22:00 Hadiboh Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 13:45 Ghubbah Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 16:30 Midi Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 16:30 Al Kharamilah Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 13:00 Kinshia Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 13:00 Kilmia Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 12:45 Gishub Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:30 Dhurbo Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:30 Bandar Murcaayo Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:30 Geesaley Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:30 Abo Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 14:00 Lakba Oman  0.1
05 Dec 2019 14:00 Sawqirah Oman  0.1
05 Dec 2019 14:00 Lakabi Oman  0.1
05 Dec 2019 14:00 Qaysad Oman  0.1
06 Dec 2019 15:30 Ceelaayo Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 15:30 Bender Siyaada Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 16:45 Al Madasikah Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:30 Djibouti Djibouti  0.1
05 Dec 2019 17:15 Tabut Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 17:15 Hayrut Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 17:15 Nishtun Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 03:30 Steroh Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 21:45 Botiala Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 18:45 Boosaaso Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 18:00 Qishn Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:30 Mayyun Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 12:15 Hajambar Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 12:15 'Arid Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 12:15 Behld Eritrea  0.1
05 Dec 2019 12:15 Beraisole Eritrea  0.1
05 Dec 2019 13:15 Buyut al Muhamirah Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 13:15 Al Fazah Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 16:45 Qandala Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Ari Adeso Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 13:15 Al Ghulayfiqah Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 17:00 Abd Allah Gharib Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 17:00 Jarub Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Berbera Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 19:45 Al Bahiyah Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Qa'wa Yemen  0.1
07 Dec 2019 17:00 Mulaax Beyle Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Obock Djibouti  0.1
06 Dec 2019 17:15 Hundegal Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Madinat ash Shab Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 14:00 Sair Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 14:00 Haima Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 14:00 Fugwa Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 14:00 Sajid Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 14:00 Humr Saudi Arabia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 00:30 Kamaran Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 00:30 Sayfaf Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 00:30 Al Jazirah Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 00:30 Qurayyah Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 00:30 Al Khawbah Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 00:30 Ibn Abbas Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 13:15 Al Butays Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:15 Carmaale Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Al Hajaf Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:30 Murad Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:30 Muhammad 'Ali Bin Fatha Sumana Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 23:45 Seyara Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 14:15 Farasan Saudi Arabia  0.1