Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19
in Somalia, Ethiopia
04 Dec 2019 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Somalia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (04 Dec 11:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 90 km/h 0.2 m 348 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 108 km/h 0.4 m 491 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

108 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormSomalia528 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 94 -
- - - - - Somalia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmSomalia2,764 
100-250 mmSomalia190,833 
50-100 mmYemen, Somalia332,956
+
Yemen2,737 
Somalia330,219 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 175 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 232 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 268 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 727 190 thousand
- - - Yemen, Somalia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Ceelbacduur, Somalia. This height is estimated for 04 Dec 2019 11:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
04 Dec 2019 11:15 Ceelbacduur Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 11:15 Ceel Dhahanaan Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 09:00 Sala Gon Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 09:00 Hurdiyo Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 09:00 Xaafuun Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 11:15 Baarbacadle Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 11:15 Eyl Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 11:15 Daga Laha Uein Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 10:15 Bargaal Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 10:15 Aiesloho Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 10:00 Mach Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 08:45 Hen Daier Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 11:00 Gaalacoodday Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 09:00 Ascira Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 08:45 Garahadde Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 11:00 Lakba Oman  0.2
04 Dec 2019 11:00 Sawqirah Oman  0.2
04 Dec 2019 11:00 Lakabi Oman  0.2
04 Dec 2019 11:00 Qaysad Oman  0.2
04 Dec 2019 08:30 Hobyo Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 08:30 Deh-Cabo Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 08:45 Culli Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 09:00 Dauli Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 08:45 Denouda Digdiglei Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 09:00 'Ag Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 08:15 Cadayo Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 09:00 Cal Marthal Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 11:45 Tooxin Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 09:30 Eddi Gellei Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 09:45 Bola Cohuan Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 08:45 Darimoh Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 09:00 Bandarbeyla Somalia  0.1