Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

04 Dec 2019 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Seychelles
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	68 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (04 Dec 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	68 km/h	0.1 m	253 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	144 km/h	0.8 m	530 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

144 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Seychelles	17

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Seychelles, Mozambique, Madagascar	73,604	+
	Tanzania	39,377
	Seychelles	47
	Mozambique	4,523
	Madagascar	29,657

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	507	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Seychelles, Mozambique, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Behavoa, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 04 Dec 2019 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Dec 2019 07:00	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 07:00	Befamata	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 07:00	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 09:30	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 07:00	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 11:30	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 11:30	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 11:30	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 11:30	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 11:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 11:30	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:15	Faux-Cap	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:15	Antavy Atsimo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:15	Ampary	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 04:30	Pangome	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 04:30	Arimba	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 04:30	Tari	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 04:30	Tavari	Mozambique	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 08:45	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 08:45	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 08:45	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 08:45	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 08:45	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 08:45	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 09:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 08:45	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:15	Talaky	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:45	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:45	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:45	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:00	Ambalanosy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:00	Ankaratravitra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 05:15	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 05:15	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 11:15	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 11:15	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 11:15	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 07:00	Ampalaza	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:15	Iambaro	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:45	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.