Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

05 Dec 2019 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Seychelles, Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	79 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (05 Dec 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	79 km/h	0.2 m	195 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	144 km/h	0.8 m	530 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

144 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Seychelles, Madagascar	609	+
	Seychelles	399
	Madagascar	210

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Seychelles	442
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Seychelles, Mozambique, Madagascar	159,012	+
	Tanzania	44,279
	Seychelles	246
	Mozambique	447
	Madagascar	114,040

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	220	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	514	Few people			-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Seychelles, Mozambique, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Mahabo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 02:45	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 02:15	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 02:45	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 02:45	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 02:45	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 02:45	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 02:45	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 02:45	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 02:45	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 02:45	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 02:45	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 02:45	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 02:45	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:45	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:45	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:45	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:45	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:45	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 01:45	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 11:30	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 11:30	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 11:30	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 11:30	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 11:30	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:15	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 00:15	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 02:30	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 11:15	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 11:15	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:30	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 07:45	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 07:45	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 07:45	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 07:15	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 07:15	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 07:15	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 07:45	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 07:45	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 07:45	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 04:30	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 04:30	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 08:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:30	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:30	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:30	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:30	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:30	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:30	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:30	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:30	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Chumbuni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Taandani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Chekea	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Temi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Chake	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Kijichame	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Jojo	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Kitwea	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Dutani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Hurumuzi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 03:45	Vumba	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 02:30	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.