Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

06 Dec 2019 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Seychelles, Comoros, Mayotte
Exposed population	40 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	79 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (08 Dec 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	79 km/h	0.4 m	402 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	144 km/h	0.8 m	530 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

144 km/h

Up to 430 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 1	Mayotte	39,017
Tropical Storm	Seychelles, Comoros, Mayotte	428,240	+
	Seychelles	494
	Comoros	249,463
	Mayotte	178,283

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	162	40 thousand			-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Comoros, Mayotte

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Seychelles, Comoros, Mayotte	73,137	+
	Seychelles	43
	Comoros	73,089
	Mayotte	05
100-250 mm	Seychelles, Comoros, Mayotte	458,926	+
	Seychelles	356
	Comoros	263,607
	Mayotte	194,963
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte	405,402	+
	Tanzania	9,653
	Seychelles	96
	Comoros	238,156
	Madagascar	135,165
	Mayotte	22,332

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	220	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	282	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	496	530 thousand				-	-	-	Tanzania, Seychelles, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Accua, Mayotte. This height is estimated for 08 Dec 2019 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	08 Dec 2019 15:00	Accua	Mayotte	0.4
	08 Dec 2019 13:15	Moliha	Mayotte	0.3
	08 Dec 2019 13:15	Dzoumogne	Mayotte	0.3
	08 Dec 2019 15:00	M'Remani	Comoros	0.3
	08 Dec 2019 11:15	Sada	Mayotte	0.3
	08 Dec 2019 11:15	Chingoni	Mayotte	0.3
	08 Dec 2019 11:15	Dembeni	Mayotte	0.3
	08 Dec 2019 11:15	Longoni	Mayotte	0.3
	08 Dec 2019 11:15	Mamoudzou	Mayotte	0.3
	08 Dec 2019 11:15	Dzaoudzi	Mayotte	0.3
	08 Dec 2019 16:00	Moya	Comoros	0.3
	08 Dec 2019 14:00	Bambao	Comoros	0.3
	08 Dec 2019 12:30	Moujou	Comoros	0.3
	08 Dec 2019 17:15	Cani	Mayotte	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 13:00	Ouani	Comoros	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:15	Matsamudu	Comoros	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 11:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 11:15	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 11:15	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 11:15	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 11:15	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 11:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:15	Dapani	Mayotte	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 12:15	Bandele	Mayotte	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Kawi	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Kipara	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Msasani	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 03:30	Kutani	Tanzania	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Bandani	Comoros	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 09:30	Mutsamudu	Comoros	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 02:15	Doriya	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Marahare	Comoros	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:15	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:30	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:30	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:30	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:30	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:30	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 12:00	Sima	Comoros	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Jaja	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Mbwera	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Kiechuru	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Somanga	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:45	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:30	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 02:45	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 02:45	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 02:45	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 02:45	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 02:45	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:15	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:15	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Andramy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:45	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:45	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:45	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:45	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 02:45	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 02:45	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 01:15	Kisiju	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Mwera	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Kilindoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:30	Taandani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:30	Sitarehe	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:30	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:30	Kengeja	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:30	Temi	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:30	Chake	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:30	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:30	Jojo	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:30	Kitwea	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:30	Hurumuzi	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Dzamandzar	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:15	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:15	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Tongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Kirongwe	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Jimbo	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:45	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 02:30	Kilwa Kivinje	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 02:30	Mtanga	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 02:30	Kilwa Kisiwani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 02:30	Kilwa Masoko	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 02:00	Lotsohina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 02:00	Ambatonjanahary	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 06:00	Manantenina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 06:00	Befasy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Chumbuni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Chekea	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Kijichame	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Dutani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Vumba	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:15	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 01:00	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 01:00	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 01:00	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 01:00	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:00	Bandani	Comoros	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:00	Iconi	Comoros	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:30	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 17:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 17:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 17:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 17:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 17:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 17:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 17:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Palma	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Bawala	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Boala	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Maganja	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Quiwia	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Atolo	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Morumequina	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Murrebue	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Mecufi	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 01:00	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.