Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

09 Dec 2019 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	144 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (09 Dec 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	144 km/h	0.5 m	295 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	144 km/h	0.8 m	530 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Madagascar	97,772

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
9	08 Dec 2019 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Dec 2019 12:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	09 Dec 2019 00:00	144	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

530 mm

Up to 890 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	21,269
100-250 mm	Madagascar	872,570
50-100 mm	Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique	1,655,514	+
	Comoros	1,593
	Madagascar	1,650,769
	Mozambique	3,152

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	220	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	282	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	402	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	167	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	134	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	227	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
9	08 Dec 2019 00:00	188	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Dec 2019 12:00	252	8 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
11	09 Dec 2019 00:00	428	890 thousand				-	-	-	Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Andanivato, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 11:30	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 15:30	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 15:30	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 14:15	Baly	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 14:15	Soalala	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Dec 2019 11:15	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 11:15	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 11:15	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 11:30	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:45	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:45	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:45	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 17:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 17:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:45	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 11:45	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 09:15	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 09:15	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 15:30	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:45	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:45	Majunga	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 20:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 20:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 20:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 20:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 11:30	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 12:15	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 09:15	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Singalana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Kijini	Tanzania	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Paje	Tanzania	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Hiari	Tanzania	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 20:30	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 00:45	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 12:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:00	Kitunda	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:00	Kiuleula	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:00	Kiswa	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:30	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:30	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:30	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:30	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:30	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:30	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:30	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:30	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:30	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:30	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:30	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:30	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 00:30	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 00:30	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 00:30	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:15	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 19:45	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:30	Ankomany	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 20:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:15	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:00	Marosakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:00	Mariarano	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:00	Berafia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Taandani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Sitarehe	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Kengeja	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Temi	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Chake	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Jojo	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Kitwea	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Hurumuzi	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 20:45	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:15	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:15	Ambariomena	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:15	Antsahabe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:15	Kilindoni	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 22:45	Ampatsinakoho	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 22:45	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 22:45	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 01:45	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 01:15	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Kilwa Kivinje	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:45	Mtanga	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:45	Kilwa Kisiwani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:45	Kilwa Masoko	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:45	Songa Manara I	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 00:00	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 00:00	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 00:00	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 00:00	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 00:00	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 00:00	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 00:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 00:00	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 00:00	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 00:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 04:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 04:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 04:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:15	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:45	Miringoni	Comoros	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:45	Ouallah	Comoros	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:45	Fomboni	Comoros	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:45	Bandani	Comoros	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:45	Iconi	Comoros	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:15	Dembeni	Comoros	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:15	Mohoro	Comoros	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:15	Dzahadjou	Comoros	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:15	Chendini	Comoros	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:15	Memba	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:15	Muanua	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:15	Ecota	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:15	Formone	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:15	Capelelene	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:15	Nhiendgi	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:15	Nangata	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:15	Chepa	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:45	Nampuita	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:45	Arire	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 06:45	Macalopa	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 21:15	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 21:15	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 21:15	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 21:15	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 21:15	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 21:15	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 06:00	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 06:00	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Mkoe	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Ruvu	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Mchinga	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Likonga	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 21:45	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Miquindane	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Lurio	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Ombauine	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 03:15	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:30	Mauala	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 01:15	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 01:15	Savana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 01:15	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 01:15	Tataho	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:15	Mwera	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 02:15	Bemahala	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 02:15	Sarahanonoy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 00:45	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 08:30	Kuwea	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:00	Namuali	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:00	Nantapa	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:00	Muaco	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Kipandoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 17:15	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:15	Maganja	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:15	Quiwia	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 04:45	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 04:45	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 04:45	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:15	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 06:30	Ambohitrabo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 06:30	Ambatomilo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 06:30	Andalambezo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 06:30	Bekodoy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Onara	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:00	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:00	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:00	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 00:45	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Jimbo	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:30	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:30	Barroa	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:30	Coluvelane	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 02:30	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.