Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

06 Dec 2019 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Seychelles
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (06 Dec 14:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	65 km/h	0.2 m	167 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	144 km/h	0.8 m	530 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

144 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Seychelles	206

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	144	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Seychelles	206
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Seychelles, Madagascar, Mayotte	505,452	+
	Tanzania	13,161
	Seychelles	87
	Madagascar	274,904
	Mayotte	217,300

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	220	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	282	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	402	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	390	Few people			-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Seychelles, Madagascar, Mayotte

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Mahabo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 06 Dec 2019 14:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	06 Dec 2019 14:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 14:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 14:30	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 14:30	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 14:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 14:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Kawi	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Kipara	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Msasani	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Kutani	Tanzania	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 14:15	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 14:45	Doriya	Tanzania	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:15	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:15	Taandani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:15	Sitarehe	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:15	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:15	Kengeja	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:15	Temi	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:15	Chake	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:15	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:15	Jojo	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:15	Kitwea	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:15	Hurumuzi	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:30	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:30	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:30	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:30	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:30	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:30	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:30	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:30	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:45	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:45	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:45	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:30	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Befamata	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:30	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:30	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:30	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:30	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 23:30	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 04:30	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Nacala Velha	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Namelala	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Capelelene	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Nhiendgi	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Maaia	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Nacala	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Chepa	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Matiquite	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:00	Minhauine	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:45	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Jaja	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Mbwera	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Kiechuru	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:45	Assane	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:45	Mwambo	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:45	Msimbati	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:45	Quionga	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:45	Quiwia	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Somanga	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Berafia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 15:00	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Andramy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Kilwa Kivinje	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Mtanga	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Kilwa Kisiwani	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 10:30	Kilwa Masoko	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:30	Accua	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:30	Moliha	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:30	Cani	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:30	Sada	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:30	Dzoumogne	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:30	Chingoni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:30	Dapani	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:30	Bandele	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:30	Dembeni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:30	Longoni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 22:30	Mamoudzou	Mayotte	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Jimbo	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:00	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:00	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:00	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:00	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Dzamandzar	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Kirongwe	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Mwera	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Kilindoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 04:45	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 04:45	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 04:45	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Tongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:30	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:00	Dzaoudzi	Mayotte	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:45	Ampatsinakoho	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:45	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 12:00	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:00	Domoni	Comoros	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:00	Mitsamiouli	Comoros	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:00	Combani	Comoros	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:00	Ifoundihe	Comoros	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:00	Chezani	Comoros	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:00	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:00	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 06:00	Manantenina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 06:00	Befasy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Chumbuni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Chekea	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Kijichame	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Dutani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Vumba	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:00	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:00	Atolo	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:00	Morumequina	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:00	Murrebue	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 14:00	Mecufi	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Songa Manara I	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Kuwea	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:15	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 11:15	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 06:00	Akondro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Palma	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Bawala	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Boala	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Maganja	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 00:15	Nangata	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Olumbe	Mozambique	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:45	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:45	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:45	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:45	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:45	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:45	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:15	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 17:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 17:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Anompaka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 10:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.