Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

09 Dec 2019 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	104 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (09 Dec 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	104 km/h	0.8 m	247 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	144 km/h	0.8 m	530 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

144 km/h

Up to 30 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Madagascar	33,884

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
9	08 Dec 2019 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Dec 2019 12:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	09 Dec 2019 00:00	144	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
12	09 Dec 2019 12:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	155,984
100-250 mm	Madagascar	900,924
50-100 mm	Comoros, Madagascar	1,702,739	+
	Comoros	6,457
	Madagascar	1,696,282

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	220	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	282	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	402	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	167	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	134	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	227	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
9	08 Dec 2019 00:00	188	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Dec 2019 12:00	252	8 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
11	09 Dec 2019 00:00	295	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
12	09 Dec 2019 12:00	401	1.1 million				-	-	-	Comoros, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Andanivato, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Dec 2019 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Dec 2019 15:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 15:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 15:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 15:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 15:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.8
	09 Dec 2019 16:30	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 16:30	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 19:45	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 19:45	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 16:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 16:00	Soalala	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 16:15	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 16:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 16:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 17:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 13:30	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 13:30	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 13:30	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 22:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 22:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 22:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 22:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 19:00	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 19:00	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 19:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 19:00	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 19:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 19:00	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 19:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 19:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 19:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:45	Nampuita	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:45	Arire	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:45	Macalopa	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:30	Mauala	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 13:45	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 19:15	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 19:15	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Miquindane	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Lurio	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:15	Ombauine	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Namelala	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Capelelene	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Nhiendgi	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Maaia	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Nangata	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Chepa	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Matiquite	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Quinga	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Metula	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:45	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:45	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:45	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:15	Kilindoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 07:45	Loharano	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:45	Mtanga	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:45	Kilwa Kisiwani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:45	Kilwa Masoko	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:45	Songa Manara I	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 06:15	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:30	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 17:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:45	Namuali	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:45	Nantapa	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:45	Muaco	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 09:45	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 09:45	Tataho	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 09:45	Manakara	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:00	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:00	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:00	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:00	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:00	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 09:45	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 09:45	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 09:45	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 09:45	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 09:45	Ambila-Lemaitso	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:00	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:30	Memba	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:30	Muanua	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:30	Formone	Mozambique	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 07:00	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 07:00	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 07:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 03:15	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 03:15	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 03:15	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:45	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 22:15	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 22:15	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 22:15	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 13:15	Ecota	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 17:00	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 17:00	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 17:00	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 17:00	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 15:45	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:45	Nacala Velha	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:45	Nacala	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:45	Minhauine	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 05:15	Assane	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 05:15	Mwambo	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 05:15	Msimbati	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 05:15	Quionga	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 13:45	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:00	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:30	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Quiwia	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:30	Mwera	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Ingoane	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Pangane	Mozambique	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 07:15	Ampatsinakoho	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:15	Bemahala	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:15	Sarahanonoy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Metuge	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Mussange	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Acache	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Porto Amelia	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Messequero	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Atolo	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Murrebue	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Luguni	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Tari	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:45	Berafia	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 06:45	Manambondro	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 06:45	Amboananto	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 06:45	Vodivola	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 06:45	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 22:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 22:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 22:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:15	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:15	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:30	Mecufi	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Jimbo	Tanzania	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 07:15	Manambotra	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 07:15	Farafangana	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.