Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

04 Dec 2019 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Seychelles
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (04 Dec 15:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	61 km/h	0.2 m	220 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	144 km/h	0.8 m	530 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

144 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Seychelles	165

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Seychelles, Mozambique, Madagascar	9,849	+
	Tanzania	15
	Seychelles	429
	Mozambique	1,648
	Madagascar	7,757

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	369	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Seychelles, Mozambique, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Mkadini, Tanzania. This height is estimated for 04 Dec 2019 15:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Dec 2019 15:15	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:15	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:15	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:15	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:15	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:15	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:15	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:15	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 17:00	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 17:00	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 17:00	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 17:00	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 13:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 13:00	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 13:00	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 13:00	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 13:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 13:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:45	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:45	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:45	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 13:30	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 13:30	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:45	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:45	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 16:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 16:00	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 17:00	Somanga	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 17:00	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 17:00	Jaja	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 16:00	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 17:00	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 17:00	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 12:15	Ankaratravitra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:45	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 16:00	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 16:00	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 16:45	Mbwera	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 12:30	Faux-Cap	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:45	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:45	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:45	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:45	Befamata	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:45	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 20:45	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 12:15	Ambalanosy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 15:30	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:30	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:30	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:30	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:30	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 22:30	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 16:15	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 16:15	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 16:15	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 16:15	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 16:15	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 16:00	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.