Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

10 Dec 2019 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	58 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (10 Dec 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	58 km/h	0.3 m	197 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	144 km/h	0.8 m	530 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

144 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
9	08 Dec 2019 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Dec 2019 12:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	09 Dec 2019 00:00	144	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
12	09 Dec 2019 12:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
13	10 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	39,519
100-250 mm	Madagascar	682,025
50-100 mm	Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique	2,429,803	+
	Comoros	2,284
	Madagascar	2,405,179
	Mozambique	22,340

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	220	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	282	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	402	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	167	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	134	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	227	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
9	08 Dec 2019 00:00	188	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Dec 2019 12:00	252	8 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
11	09 Dec 2019 00:00	295	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
12	09 Dec 2019 12:00	247	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
13	10 Dec 2019 00:00	468	720 thousand				-	-	-	Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Andanivato, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	10 Dec 2019 00:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Dec 2019 00:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Dec 2019 00:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Dec 2019 00:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Dec 2019 00:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Dec 2019 22:30	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 22:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 22:45	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 22:45	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 22:45	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 22:45	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 22:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 09:45	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 09:45	Tataho	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 09:45	Manakara	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 04:45	Mtanga	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 04:45	Kilwa Kisiwani	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 04:45	Kilwa Masoko	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 04:45	Songa Manara I	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 04:45	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 22:45	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 22:45	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 06:15	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 13:45	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 13:45	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 13:45	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:00	Assane	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:00	Mwambo	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:00	Msimbati	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:00	Quionga	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:00	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:00	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:00	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 14:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 14:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 10:45	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 14:30	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Kipandoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 22:15	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 22:15	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 22:15	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 21:30	Loharano	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 10:30	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Temi	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Chake	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Kijichame	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Jojo	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Kitwea	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Hurumuzi	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Vumba	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 10:00	Bemahala	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 10:00	Sarahanonoy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 10:00	Ampatsinakoho	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Quiwia	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:00	Miquindane	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:00	Lurio	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:00	Ombauine	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 08:45	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 08:45	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 08:45	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 08:45	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 08:45	Ambila-Lemaitso	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:00	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.