Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

05 Dec 2019 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Seychelles, Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	68 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (05 Dec 12:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	68 km/h	0.2 m	282 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	144 km/h	0.8 m	530 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

144 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Seychelles, Madagascar	210	+
	Seychelles	206
	Madagascar	04

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	122	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Seychelles	206
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Seychelles, Mozambique, Madagascar, Comoros, Mayotte	545,711	+
	Tanzania	75,091
	Seychelles	289
	Mozambique	434
	Madagascar	256,629
	Comoros	44,282
	Mayotte	168,986

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	220	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	582	Few people			-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Seychelles, Mozambique, Madagascar, Comoros, Mayotte

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Mahabo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Dec 2019 12:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Singalana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 15:30	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 15:00	Donge	Tanzania	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 15:00	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 15:00	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 15:00	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 15:00	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 15:00	Gazija	Tanzania	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:45	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 22:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Taandani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Sitarehe	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Kengeja	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Temi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Chake	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Jojo	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Kitwea	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Hurumuzi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Somanga	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Jaja	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:30	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 15:00	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 15:00	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 15:00	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:15	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:15	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 20:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 11:15	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:30	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:45	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:45	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 15:30	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 15:30	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 15:30	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Mtanga	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Kilwa Kisiwani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Kilwa Masoko	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:30	Songa Manara I	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:15	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 19:45	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 19:45	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 19:45	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 15:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 15:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 15:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 15:00	Anompaka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Mbwera	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Kiechuru	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:45	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:45	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 00:45	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 19:30	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 19:30	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:00	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Chumbuni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Chekea	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Kijichame	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Dutani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:15	Vumba	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:00	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:30	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:30	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:30	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:30	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 07:30	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 01:15	Kisiju	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 11:15	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 19:45	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 19:45	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:15	Kitunda	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:15	Kiuleula	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:15	Kiswa	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Berafia	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:30	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:00	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:00	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:00	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:00	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 13:00	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:00	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:30	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Mwera	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Kilindoni	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 05:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 01:30	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:15	Kilwa Kivinje	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:30	Jimbo	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 13:45	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 12:15	Olumbe	Mozambique	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:30	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 12:45	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:15	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:15	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Dec 2019 14:15	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 10:15	Ampasimena	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.