Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
03 Jul 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries United States, Bahamas, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico
Exposed population 380 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 133 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (05 Jul 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 133 km/h 0.5 m 134 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 1.3 m 448 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 380 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Haiti10,486 
CAT. 1Cuba, Haiti368,601
+
Cuba2,871 
Haiti365,729 
Tropical StormUnited States, Bahamas, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico8,464,396
+
United States31,176 
Bahamas07 
Cuba3,100,564 
Dominican Republic300,702 
Haiti5,020,365 
Puerto Rico11,579 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 97 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 133 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
GREEN 9 02 Jul 2021 18:00 137 -
- - - - - Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
GREEN 10 03 Jul 2021 00:00 184 380 thousand
- - - United States, Bahamas, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmCuba, Haiti75,980
+
Cuba17,101 
Haiti58,878 
250-500 mmCuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica1,224,176
+
Cuba338,071 
Dominican Republic46,874 
Haiti835,891 
Jamaica3,338 
100-250 mmBahamas, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica7,036,348
+
Cuba4,238,239 
Dominican Republic1,015,790 
Haiti1,731,185 
Jamaica51,132 
50-100 mmBahamas, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Puerto Rico4,061,631
+
Bahamas178 
Cuba1,079,975 
Dominican Republic2,420,556 
Haiti331,425 
Jamaica143,352 
Puerto Rico86,143 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 260 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 250 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 271 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Barbados
Blue 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 131 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Blue 9 02 Jul 2021 18:00 131 -
- - - - - Venezuela
Blue 10 03 Jul 2021 00:00 728 8.3 million
- - Bahamas, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Puerto Rico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC