Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
02 Jul 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 133 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (05 Jul 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 133 km/h 0.5 m 131 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 1.3 m 448 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to Few people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Cuba661 
Tropical StormCuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados5,413,369
+
Cuba422,336 
Dominican Republic97,475 
Haiti3,433,360 
Jamaica396,714 
Puerto Rico11,038 
Guadeloupe32,901 
Dominica51,009 
Martinique394,134 
Saint Lucia184,999 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines105,185 
Barbados284,214 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 97 -
- - - - - Barbados
GREEN 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 212 Few people
- - - - Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmCuba, Haiti, Jamaica100,396
+
Cuba27,195 
Jamaica31,202 
Haiti41,998 
100-250 mmCuba, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Haiti, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines1,856,219
+
Cuba119,951 
Dominican Republic87,469 
Jamaica1,478,510 
Haiti156,093 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines14,195 
50-100 mmCuba, Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Venezuela3,110,506
+
Cuba917,776 
Cayman Islands682 
Dominican Republic529,603 
Jamaica1,029,562 
Haiti274,059 
Puerto Rico226,324 
Guadeloupe988 
Martinique9,705 
Saint Lucia65,553 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines56,174 
Venezuela75 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 260 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 250 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 02 Jul 2021 00:00 271 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 02 Jul 2021 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Barbados
Blue 8 02 Jul 2021 12:00 515 2 million
- - - Cuba, Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Venezuela




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC