Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
01 Jul 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada
Exposed population 150 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (01 Jul 19:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 79 km/h 0.6 m 154 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 1.3 m 448 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 5.4 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 3Jamaica6,907 
CAT. 2Jamaica62,326 
CAT. 1Jamaica77,215 
Tropical StormCuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada5,425,514
+
Cuba1,518 
Haiti3,206,923 
Dominican Republic50,307 
Jamaica1,437,837 
Puerto Rico04 
Guadeloupe10,716 
Dominica2,075 
Martinique132,204 
Saint Lucia184,999 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines109,461 
Barbados284,214 
Grenada5,251 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 209 150 thousand
- - Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmJamaica115 
100-250 mmDominican Republic, Jamaica, Haiti, Guadeloupe, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines306,475
+
Dominican Republic30,212 
Jamaica72,496 
Haiti60,586 
Guadeloupe01 
Saint Lucia70,371 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines72,808 
50-100 mmDominican Republic, Jamaica, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada868,747
+
Dominican Republic53,575 
Jamaica312,782 
Haiti143,543 
Puerto Rico78,999 
Guadeloupe12,155 
Saint Lucia93,567 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines33,000 
Barbados91,860 
Grenada49,263 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 01 Jul 2021 00:00 260 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Jul 2021 06:00 250 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Jul 2021 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Jul 2021 18:00 472 310 thousand
- - - Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Guadeloupe, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 18:00 UTC